The Lone Gunman

[mrbaseball]

Lee Harvey Oswalt. Houston is a -105 favorite tommorrow and I believe they should get a little more line respect. Oswalt isn't having his best year but it is much better than Dontrelles. Willis has been pretty mediocre so far and Oswalt beats him out in every internal measure I look at. Offensively Florida does have a slight edge. Bullpen is tough here because I can't have much confidence in Lidge with his recent struggles however I'm not sure Borowski is a sure thing himself. Middle relief and setup men give Astros a reasonable edge. But the main play here is Oswalt over Willis where Oswalt is a step up despite the great year Willis had last year. Oswalt has simply been performing much better than Willis this season. Houston does okay versus lefties too with an 11-8 record so far this year. I see Houston a -135 to -140 fav here.

If you like big dogs (and I do!) you should take a look at KC/DET. +1.5 runs at +115 is a gift and +240 is a worthy shot as well. Is Detroit much better than KC? Hell yeah! But KC isn't as bad as the lines indicate. They have been playing .500 ball since June 1st. The Tigers are lights out though and should be decent favorites here. Just not plus money on the runline and KC getting +240 is just too much. Something in the -180 to -190 range is much more fair. Bonderman is great and the Tigers can catch and throw and hit with the best of them. And yes Duckworth can be considered a bum. Detroit gets nice pen edge as well. But KC has stepped it up on offense and not all that worse than Detroit. KC has a .260 EqA to Detroits .269 and KC's offense has been on the upswing while Detroits has been falling. So yeah, Detroit should win but not quite as often as the line indicates giving KC some value here.

[dixie_flyer]

Lee Harvey can hit too -- he just has trouble touching the base once he gets a hit...lol

[dixie_flyer]

I was strolling on the grassy knoll yesterday and came up with the same conclusions as you, i.e., a slight edge on the mound to Roy "Don't Call Me Lee Harvey" Oswalt, and a slight edge to the Marlin offense...but the addition to Huff can only help the 'Stros, and methinks that all of the Marlin rookies will be challenged to duplicate their good first half performance in the 2nd half of the season

as for Det/KC, I also noted that in the aggregate the Detroit offense isn't all THAT much better than KC...however, I noted how much better Detroit does against righties (5.6 rpg against rhp vs. 3.9 rpg against southpaws), and how much worse KC does against right handed starters (4.4 rpg vs. 4.9 rpg against lefties)...so unless Bonderman decides to throw left-handed I see a HUGE edge for the Tigers

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
You have to look at Willis lately

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Okay. In his last 3 starts Willis has a whip of 1.43 overall his whip is 1.41. He walked FIVE in his last start which to me is a huge red flashing light. Oswalt in last 3 starts has a whip if 1.12 which is better than his yearly number of 1.24. Oswalt did have a relief and an All-star appearance recently as well. But lately? Lately Oswalt is a lot more impressive than Willis.

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
I see a HUGE edge for the Tigers

[/ QUOTE ]

Huge edge to win or huge edge to this line? At what point do you bet the Tigers and at what point do you bet KC. I have this line with a fair value of about plus or minus 185. Since I think 185 is the fair number +240 for the dog side offers decent edge against the line. But I especially like the +1.5 +115 runline.

Where do you consider fair value?

[dixie_flyer]

[ QUOTE ]


Huge edge to win or huge edge to this line? ...
Where do you consider fair value?

[/ QUOTE ]

I should have clarified that I see a huge edge to the Tigers in the game, not wrt the line...actually the line seems about right to me, but it takes two to make a market, right? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ...and I'd jump all over the Tigers if I could find them at -185!

Actually, I may be looking at KC in any of the remaining 3 games in this series if the line is at the level of the game today...if that's the case, I believe that the risk/reward will be more favorable to KC than the game today

good luck!

[dixie_flyer]

nice call on the "Stros...and for a while there I thought that the Royals would come through for you