How good is 99 here?

davidross · #1 07-10-2006, 01:46 PM

2 tables left in Party's 200K guaranteed on Saturday night.
I believe there are 18 left, blinds are 8K and 16K.

From 3 off the button villain 1 makes it 50K to go. He started the hand with 180K. The SB pushes his last 54K, and I have 99 in the BB and 230K in chips. I'm presently around 10th in chips.

What ran through my mind at the time was that I wasn't going to play the hand against the original raiser. But when the SB put another 55K in the pot it started to look more attractive.

In the time allotted I tried to decide if I had any folding equity on the original raiser, allowing me to play the SB heads up for an inflated pot.

I had no reason to suspect the original raiser was raising light, he hadn't been out of line, and of course the SB could have a wide range but probably not garbage. 2 days later I still can't decide what the right play is, I can make good arguments for pushing, calling and folding.

In my mind the key factors are 1) THere is no more prize increases until 10th place, so I'm notin a position to fold to more money, I will have to play something. 2) I don't know if the original raiser is allowed to re-raise if I call the SB's bet it will be only 4K more back to him.

So tell me what you would do.

0evg0 · #2 07-10-2006, 01:51 PM

I fold here and can't remember what I let go 2 days later.

registrar · #3 07-10-2006, 02:00 PM

Don't know about Party but usually OR won't be able to reraise. However, I hate the idea of calling and then having to fold to a bet, or folding out OR, only to lose the main pot so for me this is still push or fold, probably leaning towards folding based on your reads.

adanthar · #4 07-10-2006, 02:04 PM

IF (and this is a big if) UTG would check down whiffed overs postflop but bet an overpair, you could make a case for calling based pretty much solely on odds.

If you have any reason to believe he wouldn't do this and/or would bet his 88 on a rag board, fold PF.

jcm4ccc · #5 07-10-2006, 02:16 PM

I think a stop and go is actually a possibility here. You don't have much or any PF FE. If you call preflop and then push the flop, the villian has to call 130k to win 300k. That's about 2.3 to 1. If villian has AK and missed the flop, you want him to call your push, but not by that much. He may possibly fold TT or JJ to an A or K high flop. So I think it's possible. Depends, I think, on what range you put the villian on. Is he raising 30% of his stack with 77 - 88? If so, then pushing preflop would be preferable. But if his range is 99+, AJ+, then I think a stop and go has some merits (of course, if his range is that, a fold might be better).

I don't know. I could try to run some numbers. I'll see if people crucify me first before I bother.

adanthar · #6 07-10-2006, 02:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think a stop and go is actually a possibility here. You don't have much or any PF FE. If you call preflop and then push the flop, the villian has to call 130k to win 300k. That's about 2.3 to 1. If villian has AK and missed the flop, you want him to call your push, but not by that much. He may possibly fold TT or JJ to an A or K high flop. So I think it's possible. Depends, I think, on what range you put the villian on. Is he raising 30% of his stack with 77 - 88? If so, then pushing preflop would be preferable. But if his range is 99+, AJ+, then I think a stop and go has some merits (of course, if his range is that, a fold might be better).

[/ QUOTE ]

1)if that's his range, it's a really obvious fold
2)if you stop and go any flop, not only will you be getting called drawing to 2 outs a whole lot, you'll feel really stupid when it works and you're still drawing to 2 outs a lot

rockin · #7 07-10-2006, 02:24 PM

38k to call 132k pot. Great odds. We have about 14 bb stack with 1 invested in the bb. So we will either have 13 bb stack if we fold or 11 bb stack if we call. Starting to look like a push or stop n go. If original raiser actually has ANYTHING reasonable, he will be getting great odds to call a shove, so I like a stop n go here, regardless of the flop (unless a 9 hits).

jcm4ccc · #8 07-10-2006, 02:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think a stop and go is actually a possibility here. You don't have much or any PF FE. If you call preflop and then push the flop, the villian has to call 130k to win 300k. That's about 2.3 to 1. If villian has AK and missed the flop, you want him to call your push, but not by that much. He may possibly fold TT or JJ to an A or K high flop. So I think it's possible. Depends, I think, on what range you put the villian on. Is he raising 30% of his stack with 77 - 88? If so, then pushing preflop would be preferable. But if his range is 99+, AJ+, then I think a stop and go has some merits (of course, if his range is that, a fold might be better).

[/ QUOTE ]

1)if that's his range, it's a really obvious fold
2)if you stop and go any flop, not only will you be getting called drawing to 2 outs a whole lot, you'll feel really stupid when it works and you're still drawing to 2 outs a lot

[/ QUOTE ] yeah, the more I wrote about it, the less sense it seemed to make.

jcm4ccc · #9 07-10-2006, 02:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think a stop and go is actually a possibility here. You don't have much or any PF FE. If you call preflop and then push the flop, the villian has to call 130k to win 300k. That's about 2.3 to 1. If villian has AK and missed the flop, you want him to call your push, but not by that much. He may possibly fold TT or JJ to an A or K high flop. So I think it's possible. Depends, I think, on what range you put the villian on. Is he raising 30% of his stack with 77 - 88? If so, then pushing preflop would be preferable. But if his range is 99+, AJ+, then I think a stop and go has some merits (of course, if his range is that, a fold might be better).

[/ QUOTE ]

1)if that's his range, it's a really obvious fold
2)if you stop and go any flop, not only will you be getting called drawing to 2 outs a whole lot, you'll feel really stupid when it works and you're still drawing to 2 outs a lot

[/ QUOTE ] But if the villian's stack was 100k, then stop and go.

0evg0 · #10 07-10-2006, 02:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think a stop and go is actually a possibility here. You don't have much or any PF FE. If you call preflop and then push the flop, the villian has to call 130k to win 300k. That's about 2.3 to 1. If villian has AK and missed the flop, you want him to call your push, but not by that much. He may possibly fold TT or JJ to an A or K high flop. So I think it's possible. Depends, I think, on what range you put the villian on. Is he raising 30% of his stack with 77 - 88? If so, then pushing preflop would be preferable. But if his range is 99+, AJ+, then I think a stop and go has some merits (of course, if his range is that, a fold might be better).

[/ QUOTE ]

1)if that's his range, it's a really obvious fold
2)if you stop and go any flop, not only will you be getting called drawing to 2 outs a whole lot, you'll feel really stupid when it works and you're still drawing to 2 outs a lot

[/ QUOTE ] But if the villian's stack was 100k, then stop and go.

[/ QUOTE ]

If Villain is raising to 50k with a 100k stack, you'd want to stop and go?

Just get that idea out of your head, it's no good. Sorry.

Just fold PF, and I really don't think this is close.