New Zealand

poker-penguin · #1 07-09-2006, 08:00 PM

I'm not an investment advisor or anything, but the NZ dollar has just taken a bit of a slide recently from 69c US at the start of the year to 61c (had a bounce last couple weeks).

Interest rates are nice and juicy (7% or more on high street bank 12 month term deposits, much better rates if you're willing to lend to property developers)

Between the interest rate and the probable return to about 65c of the NZD within the next 6-9 months (the NZ government has a very strict low inflation policy, and I just don't think exporters' complaints are going to be heard by the Labour Government so 61 62 just can't last IMO) you might be able to make a good return.

Obviously I'm not an expert and guarantee nothing, but if you're looking to diversify, without the volatility of emerging markets, NZ fixed interest seems like it could be a good place to be.

Maybe not though as I have no idea about the practicalities of international investment for you guys, it may be more hassle than it's worth, and this is very much a back of the envelope analysis.

mcb · #2 07-09-2006, 08:23 PM

they have serious current account issues which are driving their currency down. interest rates arent really moving currency prices at the moment. on the fx side id stay short nzd/cad or nzd/chf for a few more months.

poker-penguin · #3 07-10-2006, 04:02 PM

[censored] - shows how much attention I've been paying to news from home.

OK, well ignore my advice then, and point and laugh at me for getting a rate of 4.5 per Maltese Lira two months ago (after it slid from 4) and it's now 5. I suck at teh economics (it's not my fault, I did game theory, not macro)