If I were a Carpenter

mrbaseball · #1 07-09-2006, 09:20 AM

And Pettitte threw like a lady...

Then I 'd be grabbing some of that StL at -132. Because so far this season Pettitte has been throwing sorta like a girl. HOU is only 7-12 when he starts mainly due to his 1.62 whip and .890 OPS against. Carpenter pretty much anhilates him in any measure you want to consider.

Then consider offense. Cards score a half run per game better than HOU. Plus they have emerged from their interleague induced slump. Over the past 10 Cards have been outscoring Astros by 1.1 rpg and this year they have 12 more points of EqA and 37 points of OPS. The bullpens are pretty close and with the game on the line I don't want either Isringhausen or Lidge!

So Cards get a pretty good advantage in both starter and offense. My model has them at a -165 favorite giving me plenty of edge at -132.

Last chance before the break! I hope the first half was prosperous to all here at sports betting. It will be nice to take a little break from crunching the numbers and I hope the second half will be as good as the first!

dixie_flyer · #2 07-09-2006, 10:35 AM

excellent analysis...plus, if anything, Carpenter has been a bit unlucky this year wrt expected-actual wins and losses...what do you think of KC today? I took a flyer on them with a small amount -- they'll likely lose but the +185 seemed generous to me...lastly, do you pay much attention to BABIP or DIPS when you handicap games?

mrbaseball · #3 07-09-2006, 11:03 AM

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...lastly, do you pay much attention to BABIP or DIPS when you handicap games?

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Not at all. I'm not sold yet on BABIP theory and I certainly don't want to discount defense.

mrbaseball · #4 07-09-2006, 11:05 AM

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what do you think of KC today?

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No opinion. I don't have enough of a feel for Gobble as a starter (only 2 starts) to make an informed decision.