JJ against raise and 3-bet

Solid_p · #1 01-19-2006, 05:37 AM

Boring preflop question...

UTG is 15.5/12.7/2.9, UTG+1 17.4/12.6/3.55. Cap good or horrible?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG raises, UTG+1 3-bets, 5 folds, Hero caps...

fdsty · #2 01-19-2006, 05:52 AM

If your gonna play it cap it but I am not sure I would even play it. Really you are just hoping that they both have AK or TT and AK.

Misja · #3 01-19-2006, 06:09 AM

Horrible. Fold.

Nick Royale · #4 01-19-2006, 06:21 AM

If these stats are over many hands I don't mind folding. We're 80% dog against 41% of UTG+1 range. Against both UTG and UTG+1 we have less than 33% equity and the 1.4 SB extra in the pot doesn't justify entering imo.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 40.7243 % 38.95% 01.77% { TT+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 26.8552 % 25.37% 01.48% { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 3: 32.4205 % 31.50% 00.93% { JJ }

Reasons to play the hand:
1. It becomes pretty easy to play postflop. If an A or K flops we fold.
2. When we flop a set we will win much money against an OP.

Reasons to not play the hand:
1. About 57% of the time [(38!/35!)/(50!/47!)=0.43] the flop will bring an overcard and even if it's just a Q that will mean trouble. If it's a A or K we're screwed.
2. Even if the flop comes rags we'll be behind more than 50% of the time.
3. Sure, we'll win some when we hit a set, but given the preflop action we're not going to get that much action. If we're up against AA we're probably going to get the flop capped if it is Jxx, but not more and KK will slow down earlier.
4. The few times we flop an under set will be very costly.

So I would just fold.

If I would have played I call and raise a good flop (a flop that doesn't contain A/K). My hand will be pretty easy to read when I call preflop if villain has a read on me, but by playing it this way we lose the least when a bad flop comes and we get to protect our hand at a good flop since pfr will probably bet. If you don't think UTG+1 will bet AKo at a ragged flop I think you should cap preflop if you decide to play.

The benefit of a preflop cap is that we might get it HU if UTG holds AQ-AJ/KJs/ATs. Also, if UTG+1 isn't very good we might get him to lay down KK/QQ if the flop comes an A.

Another thing, here's a scenario. Suppose we call preflop:

Flop: 9 6 2 (r)
Check, Bet, Hero raises, Fold, Call.

Turn: 3 (9 6 2)
Check, Hero...

I don't bet here unless I can fold to a check/raise. Thoughts?

Solid_p · #5 01-19-2006, 06:36 AM

Nice analysis! My first thought was that I really should fold this, especially since they both were in early position. But dang, it's hard folding JJ preflop! You're range seems good, so I have to agree on the fold.

About the turn bet, it is an easy bet. In a big pot like this, people generally play straightforward and 3-bet an overpair on the flop.

Nick Royale · #6 01-19-2006, 06:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
In a big pot like this, people generally play straightforward and 3-bet an overpair on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're probably correct. It doesn't change what I said in my post though, when I bet I fold to a check/raise unless I have another read than the TAG stats over a large sample.