3/6 NL 6-max --- Flush on paired board call river ALLIN?

[snappo]

villain (button) is 57/0/1.11 ... havent seen him play any medium-big pots yet.

Hero ($803)
Button ($881.76)
UTG ($600)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $3.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $21</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $21, Button calls $21, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($72) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($72) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $50</font>, Button calls $50, UTG folds.

River: ($172) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $120</font>, Button calls $810.76 (All-In), Hero ???

[Jinx]

for hands like these, you really need a read more solid than stats. 57/0/1.11 really doesn't say anything about how he plays postflop and what his massive push means. With that said I think this is a fairly easy call against most opponents.

[psuasskicker]

You're gonna see a flush here way more than 50% of the time. There's no chance I'm folding this.

- C -

[snappo]

[ QUOTE ]
for hands like these, you really need a read more solid than stats. 57/0/1.11 really doesn't say anything about how he plays postflop and what his massive push means. With that said I think this is a fairly easy call against most opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

as i said i hadnt seen him play any consequential pots yet. (i hadn't been at the table long). those stats were the only read i had unfortunately.

but hes shoving ~$700 more into a ~$400 pot after i've shown considerable strength. what range do you put him on?

[Jinx]

he's a 57% vpip. How are you going to put him on a range? You'll see flush/straight/trips here plenty. Also you haven't shown that much strength and your hand is incredibly well disguised.

[cts]

Whoa, fold, he's gonna be full a lot more than 1/2 of the time here I think.

[Morrek]

Really looks like a slowplayed boat to me. I dunno if I'd fold tho

[psuasskicker]

[ QUOTE ]
Whoa, fold, he's gonna be full a lot more than 1/2 of the time here I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain is 57/0, not a TAG...you think a guy like this is much more likely to pull this move full than flushed or worse?

I'll go back to my hand from the other day I mentioned in another thread. I back doored a flush with A6s (limped pot) on a QT7r-3-T board where no one bet the flop, there was a 3/4 PSB on the turn, and the guy moved in for 110 bets (I covered) into the pot with less than 10 bets in it with T8.

Someone who's 20/15, someone who's 23/7/3.0 who looks tough and tricky, I might be able to find a fold. I can't find a fold here vs. a guy like this.

- C -

[greg nice]

good thread to show how to mis-use pokertracker stats

[Morrek]

All 57/0 says about his postflop play is that it's most likely of the passive/slowplaying kind