Top Two on the Turn

[bruce]

$500 buyin live event.

I raise from cutoff with Q9s to t400 with 75/150 blinds. Big blind calls. He's new to the table but appears to be decent. I have around t14000 and he has around t12000.

Flop comes Qs 7s 8h.

I bet around t700 into the t875 pot and he calls, somewhat reluctantly.

Turn Qs 7s 8h 9d.

He bets t3600 into me.

What's my best play and why.

Comments appreciated.

Bruce

[woodguy]

I would call.

It looks he has somesort of combo-draw that may have hit a pair, or something like 98, which now has 2 pair.

I think you are ahead, but ifyou raise here a couple of bad things can happen.

1) He can fold a worse hand that spends more chips on the river

2) He can raise his pair + draw(s) and push you off best hand.

The pot is getting big, but I really don't think that a straight leads here, and if he had a set on the flop his flop play is different.

I call and am ready to call a number of bets on the river.

If the river is a spade or T or 6 I may not call, but that depends on my read of him. This really feels like he has a wosrse two pair.

Regards,
Woodguy

[Smokey98]

He may be pushing to get you off your draw so as to not suck out on him, although would this really be considered sucking out?

[woodguy]

If you raise, it has to be with the intention of calling a push, but I see worse hands folding more than coming over top, so I'd rather call.

I makes for a lot of scarey rivers, but I think for the most part they are scarier to him than me and we can get to showdown.

I see your point about raising to get him to push with a worse hand, and that's an interesting line.

I'm not sure if it nets more than calling and letting him bet the river (or value bet ourselves), because sometimes he folds to a raise on the turn.

edit#2: he may play the low end of the straight fast, so that's another good reason to call and try to fill up, and/or a river spade may slow him down so you can get to showdown cheap.

Regards,
Woodguy

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
If you raise, it has to be with the intention of calling a push

[/ QUOTE ]
Villain has put in 4500 and has 7500 left. Just push; make him show you a better hand.

[AceLuby]

I agree w/ nath, I don't think you're going to get a cheap showdown. He really overbet this turn card (2x the pot?!?) so I think I just shove. Are you going to fold if he pushes on a blank (2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img])? If not, I would just push here.

[bruce]

I was confused by his turn bet. I interpreted it as a semibluff. I thought he was on flush draw or he had a pair with a straight draw.

I pushed and he instacalled and showed me 56s. Of course I didn't suckout.

Retrospectively I think calling the turn may have been my best play. Depending upon the river I may have been able to get off my hand or a scary river card may have forced him to check. The main problem with pushing is the times I am called I am way behind. I also kill action from hands I want action like a bigger Queen, etc.


Thanks for the feedback. I think this is an interesting hand for discussion purposes. Sklansky's new book gets into situations like this and I think he would be in agreement to me just calling.

Bruce

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain has put in 4500 and has 7500 left. Just push; make him show you a better hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure he calls off his stack here with a worse hand enough times to make this better than calling here and getting a river bet out of him.

I'd much rather call, get a blank river and get more of his chips, but given the stack sizes pushing the turn is alright too.

If it were online I'd push, but I find live players really don't call off the rest of their stack as easily as online.

A push can look like a big pair trying to push out draws so he can call with 2 pair.

I think its closer than an easy push for max EV.

Regards,
Woodguy