Hand as the chip leader vs second chip leader - Bet the river?

dumbndumb · #1 07-03-2006, 05:47 PM

Crypto 15k (pounds) about 220 runners, near the money bubble (top 30 played). Villan in this hand is second chip leader (to me), has been relatively tight, aggressive when she hits her hand. Her raise to begin the hand is a little larger then normal. I have been aggressive from the highjack seat on, but not from EP. Comments on all parts of hand appreciated. I feel like I played the hand fine up to the river, but not sure if I should bet the river.

Cryptologic #15k
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: 600/1200, 150 ante
7 players
Seat 3: mapolko (14380 in chips)
Seat 5: navonod (6580 in chips)
Seat 6: richcow (15540 in chips)
Seat 7: acesp (23760 in chips)
Seat 8: Pocket9s (23870 in chips)
Seat 9: Kiki7x (38152.50 in chips)
Seat 10: dumndumb (42055 in chips)
acesp: posts the ante 150
Pocket9s: posts the ante 150
Kiki7x: posts the ante 150
dumndumb: posts the ante 150
mapolko: posts the ante 150
navonod: posts the ante 150
richcow: posts the ante 150
acesp: posts small blind 600
Pocket9s: posts big blind 1200

Converter

Pre-flop: (7 players) dumbndumb is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG raises to $4800, dumbndumb calls, 5 folds.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($9900, 2 players)
UTG checks, dumbndumb bets $8000, UTG calls.

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($25900, 2 players)
UTG checks, dumbndumb bets $10000, UTG calls.

River: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($45900, 2 players)
UTG checks,

dumbndumb?

r987r · #2 07-03-2006, 07:38 PM

im folding preflop,

as played id probably bet 15-20k and will call a push

skier_5 · #3 07-03-2006, 07:43 PM

larger than normal raise utg = trouble. I can find a fold preflop.

I like a turn check to keep the pot under control and induce a bluff.

as played I check behind you;re not getting called by many worse hands on the river, but maybe I'm weak?

silencee · #4 07-03-2006, 07:53 PM

I check behind on river here. He may have gotten there with a weaker hand, and it may pay you off, but this feels like a big hand to me. A set, KQ, AQ and JJ+ could've played this way. You're behind most of this. Maybe AKcc could've gotten there too, but they're not calling the river here.

Foucault · #5 07-03-2006, 07:58 PM

Fold pre-flop, bet like 6K on the flop (I am always suspicious when the pre-flop raiser checks the flop), check it through on the turn. As played, be happy to check the river- I think you are behind more often than not.

Mike MacIntosh · #6 07-03-2006, 08:36 PM

As played we have $22,800 invested into the pot, leaving us with $17,255 (M = 17,255 / 2850 = 6.054). Our opponent most likey raised UTG with 99+, and AK. There are 36 possible ways to deal 99+ (6 pairs * 6 possible ways to deal each pair) and 16 ways to deal an AK. However, we have an ace which eliminates 4 of those possibilities. So our opponent is a 36 to 12 (3 to 1) favorite to have a PP.

On the flop, the villan would most likely check call w/ any of the preflop hands we put here on. She could be checking a marginal holding such as 99 or slowplaying a monster like TT. She could be trapping you with a strong holding or simply calling you down figuring you are making a play on her.

The 4 on the turn, would continue to warrant a check call from a 99 or JJ (since it is another under card). I think we can correctly take her off such a holding like TT, AA, or KK. I believe the villan would have gone for a checkraise to protect such a holding. I would put the villan on 99, JJ, or AK.

Now I could be wrong. Maybe the villan has seen you run over other players and is setting a prolonged trap for you with TT, QQ, AA, or KK.

The river 3, would be another card that would warrant a check call from 99 or JJ. Since the pot is 45,900 and we have $17,255 left. I believe its between pushing allin or checking. My read on the situation is crucial in a hand like this. Its very close between checking and betting. I would love to see a previous hand that was played which featured the villan check/calling the flop and turn, or having a better understanding or what table image the villan has of me. I would need a good read to bet in this spot. Since I dont have one, I would take the safe route and simply check behind the villan. Which would leave us with an M of 6 if we lose, enough to still be a factor in the event. What was the average stack at the time? Exactly how many people were left when this hand was played? What did the villan have?

This is a situation which is dictated by your read on your opponent and is a very good question to ask.

dumbndumb · #7 07-04-2006, 01:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]

The 4 on the turn, would continue to warrant a check call from a 99 or JJ (since it is another under card). I think we can correctly take her off such a holding like TT, AA, or KK. I believe the villan would have gone for a checkraise to protect such a holding. I would put the villan on 99, JJ, or AK.

Now I could be wrong. Maybe the villan has seen you run over other players and is setting a prolonged trap for you with TT, QQ, AA, or KK.

The river 3, would be another card that would warrant a check call from 99 or JJ. Since the pot is 45,900 and we have $17,255 left. I believe its between pushing allin or checking. My read on the situation is crucial in a hand like this. Its very close between checking and betting. I would love to see a previous hand that was played which featured the villan check/calling the flop and turn, or having a better understanding or what table image the villan has of me. I would need a good read to bet in this spot.
This is a situation which is dictated by your read on your opponent and is a very good question to ask.

[/ QUOTE ]

These are good points. I think this is the problem with the way I played the hand - what I did was read dependent, up until the river when I neglected the way I had played the hand.

A few posters have mentioned not even calling PF. The reason I called is that after having played with this person she seemed very str8 forward - betting meant strenght and check-calling did not. I thought that made this a good spot to play in considering I had position on her. The check call on the flop and turn told me I am either up against AK that believes I am stealing, 99 or JJ. Then I confused myself on river thinking there is no way she would call w/these hands and would only call on the off chance she had AA, KK or 1010 (which I new she didn't have, but somehow got concerned that I was being trapped despite me thinking trapping was not in villans repertoire). I did not follow through with my read and checked, villan had JJ as I thought.

dumbndumb · #8 07-04-2006, 01:13 AM

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as played I check behind you;re not getting called by many worse hands on the river, but maybe I'm weak?

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I have the same dilemma with myself. I try not to make too many bets on river w/hands like this, but so far villan has been willing to call with what in most likelihood is a weaker hand or a draw (I read her bet PF for this particular player as not wanting a call, which turned out to be the case).

jcm4ccc · #9 07-04-2006, 01:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]

A few posters have mentioned not even calling PF. The reason I called is that after having played with this person she seemed very str8 forward - betting meant strenght and check-calling did not. I thought that made this a good spot to play in considering I had position on her.

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I agree with the others that you should have folded pf. There are 2 problems with your argument. One is that you are giving odds for callers behind you, meaning that you could end up in a multi-way pot with a hand that is easily dominated. The second is that you seem to think you can call because you can outplay her on the flop. However, the stacks are not deep enough for this kind of reasoning. The fact is, if she has a better hand than you on the flop, you will pay, regardless of her skill level.

[ QUOTE ]

The check call on the flop and turn told me I am either up against AK that believes I am stealing, 99 or JJ. Then I confused myself on river thinking there is no way she would call w/these hands and would only call on the off chance she had AA, KK or 1010 (which I new she didn't have)

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That's just silliness. How did you know she didn't have TT? This is hardly a draw heavy board. She may be content to let you do the betting for her.

The fact is, when the villian called your flop bet, alarms bells should have gone off. There was no draw apparent on the board, and the villian had shown a lot of strength pf. You should have worked towards getting a cheap showdown.

When you bet the turn, any reasonable villian that doesn't have you beat is going to fold. So betting the turn isn't getting you anywhere against most opponents. Check the turn. If villian then checks the river, you are probably safe in making a value bet.

dumbndumb · #10 07-04-2006, 01:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

The check call on the flop and turn told me I am either up against AK that believes I am stealing, 99 or JJ. Then I confused myself on river thinking there is no way she would call w/these hands and would only call on the off chance she had AA, KK or 1010 (which I new she didn't have)

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That's just silliness. How did you know she didn't have TT? This is hardly a draw heavy board. She may be content to let you do the betting for her.

When you bet the turn, any reasonable villian that doesn't have you beat is going to fold. So betting the turn isn't getting you anywhere against most opponents. Check the turn. If villian then checks the river, you are probably safe in making a value bet.

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I guess I do not see how this is silly if I feel I have a read on a player. I agree, many opponents w/1010 would trap, but I really felt this was not part of villans game plan. Are you saying this just based on average opponents, or are you just saying that you think I put too much into a read?