Easy value bet on the river w/ middle pair?

Saborion · #1 07-02-2006, 02:34 PM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Villain is 36/18 and appears to be loose postflop. Only 50 hands with him though.

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, MP calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets, BB folds, UTG calls, MP folds.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

River: (7.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks
This should be an easy value bet, right? He most likely doesn't have a K, and the only Jx that we lose to is QJ since AJ will raise preflop.

V4P · #2 07-02-2006, 02:57 PM

Fire away, like you said, you'd have already heard from him if he had a K

silkyslim · #3 07-02-2006, 04:09 PM

whats his AF? i would bet

Nick C · #4 07-02-2006, 04:10 PM

I wouldn't exactly call it "easy." If you're best, I don't think you're actually getting called by a worse hand all that often.

But I suppose it's possible he has 33 and decided to keep you honest with your AQ.

Anyway, I guess I'm saying don't be shocked if you bet and he folds his Q9 or whatever.

Saborion · #5 07-03-2006, 03:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't exactly call it "easy." If you're best, I don't think you're actually getting called by a worse hand all that often.

But I suppose it's possible he has 33 and decided to keep you honest with your AQ.

Anyway, I guess I'm saying don't be shocked if you bet and he folds his Q9 or whatever.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hi Nick,

Yes. I didn't think he was likely to have a king given his passiveness. I didn't completely rule it out though. So I thought his most likely hands where Jx, QT, or a lower pair. Then comes Q9 and similiar hands. Naturally the straight draws won't call, and maybe the lower pairs will drop it as well. So if I bet I'll be called by all Kx, and by all Jx for sure, given that he called to the river. Lower pairs may or may not call. Do we have a bet? I think we do, and I think it's an easy one actually. Sure, sometimes we'll be beat, but not often enough to not bet. Am I wrong?

In the actual hand I checked behind. I thought that he may play a weak K like this sometimes, as well as Jx (and QJ beats me), QT and a lower pair, which may not call me. That's weak thinking though, and I didn't feel good about checking behind.

Saborion · #6 07-03-2006, 03:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
whats his AF? i would bet

[/ QUOTE ]
Only had 50 hands with him, so didn't bother to include the AF given that those numbers take longer than that to, hmm.. well, can't remember the word right now.

But if you really want to know, there were something like 4.x/something/unlimited. So he did appear to be aggro postflop, but 50 hands, and no idea if those numbers are true when he is OOP against the PFR.

Nick C · #7 07-03-2006, 06:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't exactly call it "easy." If you're best, I don't think you're actually getting called by a worse hand all that often.

But I suppose it's possible he has 33 and decided to keep you honest with your AQ.

Anyway, I guess I'm saying don't be shocked if you bet and he folds his Q9 or whatever.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hi Nick,

Yes. I didn't think he was likely to have a king given his passiveness. I didn't completely rule it out though. So I thought his most likely hands where Jx, QT, or a lower pair. Then comes Q9 and similiar hands. Naturally the straight draws won't call, and maybe the lower pairs will drop it as well. So if I bet I'll be called by all Kx, and by all Jx for sure, given that he called to the river. Lower pairs may or may not call. Do we have a bet? I think we do, and I think it's an easy one actually. Sure, sometimes we'll be beat, but not often enough to not bet. Am I wrong?

In the actual hand I checked behind. I thought that he may play a weak K like this sometimes, as well as Jx (and QJ beats me), QT and a lower pair, which may not call me. That's weak thinking though, and I didn't feel good about checking behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know. When I bet and they call, here in July, they always have me beat. Or they checkraise and either I assume I'm beat or I call and, yes, in fact, I get shown the nuts (or the nuts compared to my hand, in any case).

I've been worrying about monsters under the bed, because lately that's what I'm getting shown. So my perception is kind of warped right now.

Anyway, if you're ever getting checkraised by a worse hand here, then that cuts into your very thin value bet quite a bit (unless you're calling, but then that introduces a new problem [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img], since your hand isn't really all that good).