Big pot, lots of paint. Very spewful.

Yossarian147 · #1 07-01-2006, 07:26 PM

I've been sitting for a few rounds when this one comes up. Both of my opponents play a ton of hands and will raise/cap with a variety of junk including low pocket pairs.

Fish 1 62/17/0.9
Fish 2 53/12/1.4

Poker Stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.25/$0.5
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 folds, FISH1 calls, Hero raises, FISH2 3-bets, 4 folds, FISH1 calls, Hero caps, FISH2 calls, FISH1 calls.

I guess the cap is questionable, but against the range of hands these guys have been playing I don't think it's too bad.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (13.4SB, 3 players)
FISH1 checks, Hero checks, FISH2 bets, FISH1 calls, Hero calls.

Ok scary flop but I have an overcard and a 3-out gutshot. Not worth a bet I don't think but I'll call since the pot is pretty big. Too weak considering I capped? These guys certainly aren't folding.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (8.2BB, 3 players)
FISH1 checks, Hero bets, FISH2 raises, FISH1 3-bets, Hero calls, FISH2 calls.

Not looking good. I have TPTK and the gutshot so I lead out. 7:1 back to me after the checkraise. I figure I'm up against at least a set and possibly a straight. I make a bad call for 2 bets.

River: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (17.2BB, 3 players)
FISH1 bets, Hero calls, FISH2 calls.

Got my straight but it's 3 to a flush. Worth a call no doubt.

I think I played this one poorly but was blinded a bit by the size of the pot and the junk my opponents kept turning up. What would you have done differently?

Aaron W. · #2 07-01-2006, 07:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What would you have done differently?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not donk the turn.

bozlax · #3 07-01-2006, 07:45 PM

Preflop cap is absolutely standard against anybody.

On the flop, as the preflop capper, you need to bet this out. If you get raised, that's one thing, but you can't just assume somebody has a queen.

Once the turn hits, it actually helps the hands you're scared of more than it helps yours. Check and see, but I'm not calling more than one.

On the river the crying call is fine, but if it comes back to you I fold. You're crying for a split with basically the worst hand this board can make.

OziBattler · #4 07-01-2006, 07:59 PM

what boz said. even fish get big hands from time to time.

freedom18 · #5 07-01-2006, 08:16 PM

def need C-bet on flop... but if he raises then what do we do ? usually I 3 bet but... we are out of position here

HouseCalls · #6 07-01-2006, 08:26 PM

OK so I tried to analize this is some detail and got a result pretty different than what I expected.

Here's my work

[ QUOTE ]
Ok lets think about what you might be up against on the turn:

I would put both FISH on a range about like this -

AA(3ways), KK(3), QQ(1), JJ(3), TT(6), AK(6), AQ(6), AJ(9), AT(12).

Any two [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]'s is also possible but given the preflop play the most likely spades hands are included in the hands above so lets tweak our range just a bit to reflect the spades as follows:

AA(3ways), KK(3), QQ(1), JJ(3), TT(6), A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img](1), AK(5), AQ(6), AJ(9), AT(12).

Now lets look at your chance of winning against each possible holding:

AA(3) You are behind with 6 outs (2 K's and 4 T's) so you have roughly (12%)*3 = .36 wins

KK(3) You are behind with 4 outs (T's) = 8% * 3 = .24 wins

QQ(1) Drawing dead = 0 wins

JJ(3) 6 outs (2 K's, 4 T's) = 12% * 3 = .36 wins

TT(6) opponents drawing dead = 3 wins

A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img](1) will tie unless one of 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]'s hits = 82% * .5 = .41 wins

AK(5) Split pot = .5 * 5 = 2.5 wins

AQ(6) 6 outs (2 K's; 4 T's) = 12% * 6 = .72 wins

AJ(9) opponent has 2 outs to a win (J's) and 4 outs to a tie (T's) so you win (88% * 9) + split (8% * .5 * 9) = 7.92 + .36 = 8.28 wins

AT(12) 3 outs (T's) to a split pot = 6% * .5 * 12 = .36 wins

Put this all together and you have a total of 16.23 wins out of 49 possible hands.

Your percent chance of winning is 33%.

Now this is against one villain with this range with two your chance is less but...

getting oods of 7:1 you need to win 1 out of 8 times to break even = 12%

so this looks like a call down from the turn to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty new at these calculations and thought we were in worse shape than this soooooo

Can someone out there take a look at these and see if they make sense?

Thanks - House

ackid · #7 07-01-2006, 11:42 PM

Vs. this type of player/s I play it the same.

nomadtla · #8 07-02-2006, 12:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Can someone out there take a look at these and see if they make sense?

Thanks - House

[/ QUOTE ]

They do make sense but I don't know if I agree with your conclusion.

Firstly:
I am lazy so I stoved your range vs. hero's cards on the turn.
[ QUOTE ]
Board: Qs Js Qh Kc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 41.0798 % 34.86% 06.22% { TT+, ATs+, ATo+ }
Hand 2: 41.0798 % 34.86% 06.22% { TT+, ATs+, ATo+ }
Hand 3: 17.8404 % 12.02% 05.82% { AcKd }

[/ QUOTE ]
So 33% against 2 opponents on this range makes us about even on our agreement of hero's equity. 33/2 = 16.5 so were in the same ballpark.

My question on your conclusion:
[ QUOTE ]
getting oods of 7:1 you need to win 1 out of 8 times to break even = 12% so this looks like a call down from the turn to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

We are not geting 7:1 on our full calldown. We are only getting 7:1 on the turn call and we are not closing the action.
On our full calldown (assuming there is only one bet on the river and no cap on the turn) we are acctually getting 18:3 or 6:1 meaning we must be good 16.6% of the time. We are right on the line for a calldown and that's if both fishies play nice.
There may be a few cards on the river that we could find a fold on. but I think that kind of = out with the chance these fishes won't play nice.

The thing that really intrests me is the way Fish1 played the hand. It reeks of a fish who hit trips or turned the straight. So I don't think I can give as much value in his range to the hands we're ahead of. I also think I'd have to add some hands we're behind to his range. Not even discounting any of the hands we're ahead of, but just adding some more we're behind pushes our equity into the toilet, even if you widden fish2's range becuase of our read. I think the chance that the fishes will cap the turn and make it more then 1 on the river pushes me to fold the turn. If we don't donk this turn then I feel even better about a turn fold.

You may debate that the problem with folding the turn is that we have outs that we'd like to see on the river: K(2), Q(1.5 since this card gives us a split with anther K), non spade T(2 since this card could give us a split). We are 8.4:1 to see one of those rivers, the pot gives us 7:1 on just a turn call 8:1 if we assume fish2 will call (again this assumes the turn is not capped behind us, and we can fold any other river). That's just not enough unless I could count on the perfect implied odds situation and no cap on the turn. The other thing to take into account is that I didn't fully discount those outs for the possibility that we are not going to win with the T's even one of the Q's might not be enough for us vs. KK, AA or the case Q.

I know I am making a lot of arguments for folding this turn. I think in gametime I play it the same as OP. But when analyzing it I think it's a fold on the turn (not even close) esspescially if we don't bloat the pot more by donking the turn.

Aaron W. · #9 07-02-2006, 02:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I would put both FISH on a range about like this -

AA(3ways), KK(3), QQ(1), JJ(3), TT(6), AK(6), AQ(6), AJ(9), AT(12).

Any two [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]'s is also possible but given the preflop play the most likely spades hands are included in the hands above so lets tweak our range just a bit to reflect the spades as follows:

AA(3ways), KK(3), QQ(1), JJ(3), TT(6), A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img](1), AK(5), AQ(6), AJ(9), AT(12).

[/ QUOTE ]

You forgot KQ, which is another 4 hands.

The numbers are fine (consistent), but I disagree with this assessment on principle. The check/3-bet from fish1 indicates suggests tossing TT and AJ, or at least not counting them fully. So the range I would assign look more like:

AA (3), KK (3), QQ (1), JJ (3), AK (1+5), AQ (6), AT (12), KQ (4). Now there are a total of only 38 hands, which is close to 1/4 lower than your count (more importantly, throwing out the cases where you have the lead). Maybe you throw in QJ because they're donks, but that just hurts you even more because you're drawing dead to it. I'll be favorable and leave it out.

[ QUOTE ]
Put this all together and you have a total of 16.23 wins out of 49 possible hands.

Your percent chance of winning is 33%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Running the numbers again:

AA: 3*12% = .36
KK: 3*8% = .24
QQ: 0
JJ: 3*12% = .36
A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] = .5*1*82% = .41
AK: .5*5*100% = 2.5
AQ: 6*12% = .72
AT:.5*12*6% = .36
KQ: 0
Total: 4.95/38 = 13% wins

[ QUOTE ]
getting oods of 7:1 you need to win 1 out of 8 times to break even = 12%

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you counted wrong. There are 14 BB in the pot right now. Assuming that the turn isn't capped and the river is bet and not raised, you're looking to win 14 + 1 (turn call from the other player) + 2 (river action) = 17 BB. Your investment will be 3 BB (2 on the turn + 1 on the river). Therefore, you need 17:3 = 5.7:1 to call down, ASSUMING we get the right action.

In the heads up case, you're 15% to win. Against two players, you're much worse. Using PokerStove,

Board: Qs Js Qh Kc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 05.0359 % 02.68% 02.36% { AcKd }
Hand 2: 47.4820 % 41.17% 06.31% { JJ+, AQs+, ATs, KQs, AQo+, ATo, KQo }
Hand 3: 47.4820 % 41.17% 06.31% { JJ+, AQs+, ATs, KQs, AQo+, ATo, KQo }

You may be asking "Why is it 1/3 of 15% instead of 1/2 of 15%?" The answer is that when one villain holds a hand in the list, usually the other villain is holding some of your outs hostage. Therefore, you have a smaller chance of drawing out on the river.

Definitely fold the turn when it's two back to you, and don't donk it in the first place. Flop check is good -- I don't think you fold anything out and I don't think it's a value bet.

Yossarian147 · #10 07-02-2006, 06:09 AM

Interesting analyses. Results here:

Fish1: QT, Fish2: JJ. I am totally pwned.