How Atrocious is this?

[Michael Davis]

Tough 15-30 game, incredibly brutal lineup, 2/3 blind structure.

Agressive woman openraises from MP, she's solid and has a decent range here, okay player coldcalls from cutoff. He would almost always threebet here, he would never coldcall with aces, his most likely hands are small pairs and QJs/JTs type stuff. I call on the SB with Ac8c. The BB, a good player who will defend a fairly wide range of stuff here, calls.

Flop is 533 rainbow w/ no club. Checked to the MP woman who bets, cutoff calls, BB telegraphs that he is folding, I call intending to bet any turn card T or below.

-Michael

[luckychewy]

I don't really like PF - but don't mind it. I don't like the flop against two players. I think floating two players OOP to hope a card falls that make a good bluff card for you is probably not gonna be +EV. Even more so, CO's range PF is pairs and SC's right? I don't think he will fold a pair to your turn lead depending on what the lady does. And if she gives you heat you obviously can't continue unless you pickup [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] outs. I just think this is a mess you shouldn't get in to.

[Michael Davis]

His range really doesn't include pairs after he just calls the flop, unless he has 55 or 33. It does include weak suited aces though, he could have A2, A3, or A4s.

-Michael

[PokerBob]

i think preflop is fine. i think your turn plan is very cute. likely too cute. what are you doing if MP calls and CO folds and the river is a brick?

[Michael Davis]

River plan in that spot would probably be to give up if the board paints, bet out if the board is another middling card, checkraise if the board two pairs, checkcall if the river is an ace. I think I should maybe take the giving up part out, she just isn't strong if she calls me on the turn and if the turn puts a potential flush out there I have to consider she is on a flush draw (or gutter straight draw), possibly one that beats me, that she will give up on the river. Basically, these cats are into reading hands but they're live players so they still hate paying off with high card.

Also note that there are other hands I play this way that are better than my hand, and I have done so against these same opponents, however honestly even though they play pretty good I don't think they remember and/or are thinking about those specific instances, although they definitely are trying to figure out what kind of hand I could have in this spot.

-Michael

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]

Also note that there are other hands I play this way that are better than my hand, and I have done so against these same opponents, however honestly even though they play pretty good I don't think they remember and/or are thinking about those specific instances

[/ QUOTE ]

i think this is a great point that i struggle with/talk to others about a lot and can't get a grip on what is "correct". i think it is very easy to think along the lines of "well, i did this earlier and this and this", when it is is quite possible (likely even?) that WE recall what we did earlier, but our opponents simply do not.

i agree that regardless of what they recall, they are denfintely going to think WTF? with your line.

[DrewOnTilt]

I don't get it. You coldcomplete with a marginal hand, flop nothing, and plan to pure bluff the turn? If I have AK against you in that spot then I call down 8 days a week and twice on Sunday.

And if the game is "brutal" why are you in it in the first place?

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

I'd almost rather check-raise the flop.

[Michael Davis]

"coldcomplete with a marginal hand"

No, I didn't.

"plan to pure bluff the turn"

I plan on catching an 8, but my fallback is to pure bluff the turn. I also have a hand that has some chance of being best.

"If I have AK against you in that spot then I call down 8 days a week and twice on Sunday."

Fine. But you're not my opponent. Anyways, I'm fairly certain I'm not dropping AK. But I've got the only opponent likely to have me beat stuck between someone betting the turn into two opponents and a player behind whose hand is much more uncertain to her than it is to me.

-Michael

[andyfox]

Yes, wouldn't a flop check-raise make your play more believable?