Wrap vs. AAA, should I gamble or fold?

[LegendofLink]

still trying to learn the intricacies of this game, so excuse me if this is stupid...

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $4 BB (9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Button ($392)
SB ($427.60)
BB ($293)
UTG ($156)
UTG+1 ($240.50)
MP1 ($488.80)
Hero ($563.10)
MP3 ($152)
CO ($380.80)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls $4, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, MP3 calls $8, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $38</font>, Hero calls $30, MP3 calls $30.

Flop: ($120) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>

BET InstinKt, $117

Hero ??

Final Pot: $120

edit- i don't know why it's not showing up, but villain who reraised bets pot on flop

villain who reraised preflop has AA, no question in my mind, so should I look to gamble here, call and see the turn then fold if i don't hit, or just fold off the flop?

if he has less chips i get in from the flop, but this guy is pretty deep

[piiop]

I'd stick it in on the flop.

I'd also pot pf instead of minraising.

[CallYNotRaise06]

gambooool

[LegendofLink]

i'm not really worried about losing a buy in, but since he was almost as deep as me and since he obv had AA, i didn't know whether putting it all in with 13 outs was the best course. so far 2 for gamboling off the flop, more thoughts?

[Aisthesis]

I prefer a call in this particular case rather than pushing. You can then get out if the board pairs. The suit of the turn card can also be relevant.

Here, it seems to me like your fold equity (assuming the logical AA) is clearly 0, so I don't really see the point in pushing. Also, this isn't one of those cases where you're actually ahead of top set, as you would be with more than 17 outs.

I don't particularly like the PF raise at all in MP, but it depends on how the game is playing, I suppose and does serve to put your opponent more clearly on AA.

[RoundTower]

I think you should just call but I'd like someone to try to convince me pushing is better. I would never fold.

[abscr]

I'd say just call. You aren't ahead of AAxx here, but have the odds to call two pot-sized bets. You have to worry about MP3; but I'd gamble and hope he has higher cards and gets out of the way.

If a club comes on the turn, I'd push because I would want to get paid when I hit with it, and you might not if you just call.

And the clubs are probably good. If you are correct on the aces, he'd have to have two clubs with one being higher than a nine out of two cards.

I like the pf raise. This is a premium hand and you want to raise the stakes.

[Silent A]

If you push here, you're a 42.5/57.5 dog against AAxx. Assuming MP3 backs off, there will be $558 to win, and it will cost you another $450. Therefore you need 44.7% equity for a push to be neutral EV (and you only have 42.5).

OK, so pushing is bad.

What about calling:

The pot will then be about $360 and he will have about $330 left. I don't think there is any card that you will both want to check. If it all goes in on the turn, the pot will cost you a total of $450 since the flop, and you stand to win $560.

- if the turn pairs (6/43 cards) you're virtually 0/100. You fold and lose $120.

- if the turn makes you a straight (13/43) cards you're about 72/28.

- if the turn is a rag club (6/43 cards), you're about 42/58

- if the turn is a brick (18/43 cards), you're about 31/69

Let's assume you only fold if it pairs, and he never folds the turn.

EV = -120*6/43 + 13/43*(.72*560 - .28*450) + 18/43*(.31*560 - .39*450) + 6/43*(.42*560 - .58*450) = + $6.15

If you fold a brick on the turn, this increases to +13.12

If he folds when a str8 hits the turn (and you fold a turn brick), if falls to +1.98.

NOTE: All the above numbers assume that your opponent has AAxx with 2 random side cards.

[abscr]

Yeah; seeing Silent's numbers and checking them, I see that pushing a bricked club isn't good. I had first used twodimes and gave him AA22 with no suits which gave 50/50 (the best case scenerio). Giving a random AAxx hand, it's clearly -EV to put it all in.

[pwnsall]

Pushing here can change your table image winning you future moneys?