Overbet push with nuts: how often is this called?

[Pokey]

<font color="blue">Hero is fairly new to the table and has no reads. Hero also hasn't done anything remarkable at the table yet.</font>

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $147.15
UTG+1: $68.20
CO: $124.60
Button: $37.50
SB: $96.20
Hero: $118.15

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, Hero checks.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($4, 4 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $4</font>, UTG folds, CO calls, SB folds.

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($12, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $12</font>, CO calls.

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($36, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $111.15 (all-in)</font>....

[Misanthrope]

The answer is how often they have a set + 10%

[Fallen Hero]

Either he has diamonds (obviously he never calls) or a marginal K (almost 100% not to call) or he slowplayed something and he's calling (extremely rare). I don't think this works 10% of the time, he has to "have a read" and go with it, which most just won't do.

[aces_dad]

Given the action and the board it's hard to put villian on a second best hand good enough to call this. I think you lose the decent K's that'll call 25 almost all the time here.

[CallMePls]

Definately less than 10% of the time on this board and with the action. I'd put him on a King-Jack or similar marginal King. If he's willing to get stacked with top pair, sweet.

Only way I see him calling without a set is if he has a King and he thinks you're going all in on a busted flush draw or something.

[MyTurn2Raise]

this brings up a point that I have noticed playing SSNL

sometimes, I just throw out the whole pot size and fractions. I will just push if the villian is capable of calling. Sure, they fold more often than not, but the ev of them potentially calling a push outweighs the routine 1/3 pot size value bet and call. Of course, this is heavily PLAYER DEPENDENT.

oh yeah...i agree with the earlier poster who said only a set would call you here. I think 2 pair hands, which sometimes call, would be too smallish for typical villian to risk it.

[xwillience]

at nl100 ive noticed that they think a push into a medium/small pot is usually a bluff so it gets called a bit more often. at 25 and 50 its usually for value though.

[jjigglers]

If you aren't going to VB, I think a C/R all-in is better than open push. What hand is calling your open push that isn't value betting the river when checked to, and then calling your push? There are many hands that will be when checked to (missed draws) you can get value from.

[boomshakalaka]

he showed no aggression the entire hand, what makes you think he calls here enough to make you more then a value bet would?

[Chaos_ult]

I don't really like this push..

Villain hasn't shown any strength...

As others have already stated, he's not calling with less than a set, and given the action, I don't see that as a very likely scenario.

I probably bet 1/2 pot here hoping to get paid off by a curious top pair