Interesting prop bet for 50k HORSE

[bigbootch]

Here is an interesting prop bet for the 50k HORSE event: suppose you get to choose N names right now, such that you win an even-money bet if somebody from your list wins the 50k HORSE event. You lose the even-money bet if anybody else wins the 50k HORSE event.

1. What's a fair value of N? Also, part of the bet is that you have to construct the list RIGHT NOW, i.e. if somebody on your list ends up not playing in the event, then too bad.

2. Who would you put on your list?

[MCS]

For #1, I would guess around 40. I think it'll be a small but strong field, where the best players don't have much of an edge and so you need close to half the field to be even.

I don't know who I'd put on the list. A bunch of famous people.

[El Ishmael]

Another problem is you have no idea who will be willing to put up the money (you have some idea, obv., but not exactly).

[BobK]

Depends how many satellites they run. With a lot of satellite winners you might not have heard of more than half the field.

I would guesstimate around 60% unknowns would make it about even money if you had all the other names.

It may never be as good as even money with a large percentage of unknowns.

[captZEEbo]

I don't think there will be that many unknowns in this mtt

[tom10167]

Nor do I, nobody's playing eight or better or Razz these days.

[Phat Mack]

What's the over/under on the number of registrants?

[Rick305]

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What's the over/under on the number of registrants?

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38.5

[psyolo]

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What's the over/under on the number of registrants?

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38.5

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I'll take the over

[MEbenhoe]

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What's the over/under on the number of registrants?

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38.5

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I'll take the over

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yeah seriously, was this a real line somewhere? if yes, could you please say where you found it?