Folding (or not folding) bottom set against complete donk, Dise $150k

Soul Rebel · #1 06-26-2006, 07:02 PM

This was about halfway through the Paradise $150k yesterday. Blinds are 200/400 + 50 ante. I have T11,000, and the villain has the same amount. I just got moved to this table, so I haven't seen this guy play a hand yet. However, as is very evident from the hand, its incredibly obvious he's a donk.

I limp 88 utg, gets folded to the villain in the sb who minraises. I call.

Flop: 8 9 A. He checks, I check behind for a couple reasons. First reason is because I want KK and QQ to bet the turn and not insta-fold the flop when I bet. Second reason is because I am very, very wary of AA here.

Turn blanks. He bets 200, I raise to 1800, he min-reraises me to 3600.

What do you do here? It seems clear that I'll be able to show my set down cheaply, but my gut is screaming at me that this is AA at least 99% of the time. These minraises are the biggest donk tell in NLHE. It looks like I can call down and still keep half my stack, or I can dump bottom set right now.

Let's say we call the turn raise, how much are we willing to call on the river assuming we fold to a push?

The fact is that this guy sucks, and there is literally no other hand that I can put him on other than AA. Thoughts?

adanthar · #2 06-26-2006, 07:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I limp 88 utg, gets folded to the villain in the sb who minraises. I call.

Flop: 8 9 A. He checks, I check behind for a couple reasons. First reason is because I want KK and QQ to bet the turn and not insta-fold the flop when I bet. Second reason is because I am very, very wary of AA here.

[/ QUOTE ]

"lol"

Soul Rebel · #3 06-26-2006, 07:33 PM

Is this seriously an "lol" ? I've been in this situation a lot in cash games, but rarely in MTTs. It was Taylor Caby's recent post in HSNL that made me think about this.

Maybe I wasnt clear enough. This is the first time I have ever considered laying down a set on a board like this in over 300 MTTs. It was just one of those times that for some reason I just knew I was beat. I have more cash experience than tournies, but a play like this in a cash game is AA just about every time.

The min-reraise on the turn is never Ax or two pair here, because players that put in a 3bet min-raise don't min-raise Ax from the sb here.

I'm very interested in hearing what range we can put this guy on after he min raise pf from the sb, and takes this line?

adanthar · #4 06-26-2006, 07:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I'm very interested in hearing what range we can put this guy on after he min raise pf from the sb, and takes this line?

[/ QUOTE ]

On the flop? Two cards. Possibly suited.

Soul Rebel · #5 06-26-2006, 07:48 PM

Ok, thanks for the help guys. Its clear that I shouldn't be too worried about this. In case it matters, I did consider folding the turn, but didn't for all the reasons stated here. On the river I thought about pushing, but decided to give my read and my gut some credit and just called. He had it, and I was pissed for not trusting myselft. Could be cause Im running badly, but I've had trouble going with my reads lately.

cow_phunk · #6 06-26-2006, 08:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, thanks for the help guys. Its clear that I shouldn't be too worried about this. In case it matters, I did consider folding the turn, but didn't for all the reasons stated here. On the river I thought about pushing, but decided to give my read and my gut some credit and just called. He had it, and I was pissed for not trusting myselft. Could be cause Im running badly, but I've had trouble going with my reads lately.

[/ QUOTE ]

putting him on AA on your first hand at the table w/ no prior experience w/ this player is an impossibility. you're ahead of damn near every range i can think of, especially when your read says "he's a donk."

DodgerPSU · #7 06-26-2006, 07:13 PM

Its way too much of an assumption to put him only on AA. Ax is always a possibility here, especially if his "x" hit on the turn. He also could have hit his two pair on the flop with A9 or A8, and slow played that thinking you were on nothing. There is no way I lay that hand down. While there is a chance to get knocked out agains AA or 99, its a risk I would take.

Matador225 · #8 06-26-2006, 07:23 PM

You can't put him squarely on AA. It is certainly a possibility but most of the time you are ahead. He could very well have AK, AQ, A9, A8, 89s, or Ax for two pair.

nath · #9 06-26-2006, 07:33 PM

here's an idea, instead of calling every street, raise every street. that way if you lose set over set at least you can say you played it right.

Matador225 · #10 06-26-2006, 07:39 PM

MTTs are not cash games. You start with 100 BBs in cash games while in this tournament your M is under 20. I'm sure you know that your stack size dictates your play, and with an M of under 20 folding a set is criminal. Also without any read on villain you can't dismiss the possibility that he is a complete donk that might minraise with a wide range.