The right way to bet this?

jskinn04 · #1 06-25-2006, 10:15 PM

Preflop I was worried the guy's limp might have meant AA or KK. How's my line here?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button (t4268)
SB (t1635)
Hero (t1550)
UTG (t3406)
MP (t9141)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls t100, 3 folds, Hero checks.

Flop: (t250) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets t250, Hero raises to t500, UTG calls t250.

Turn: (t1250) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t500, UTG calls t500.

River: (t2250) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero moves all-in t495

blackize · #2 06-25-2006, 10:18 PM

Bet way more on the turn. 800 minimum. I might even push here since the pot is bigger than your stack.

alvaroaze · #3 06-25-2006, 10:24 PM

i would raise more in the flop and push the turn.

jskinn04 · #4 06-25-2006, 10:34 PM

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Bet way more on the turn. 800 minimum. I might even push here since the pot is bigger than your stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

This advice seems sounds.

When I played the hand at the table I wanted to milk him, fearing that he might fold an overpair if I pushed the turn. I guess his range here is overpairs, floated overcards, flush draws, trips (A5s), a full boat (22), a straight draw (A3,A4), or a small pocket pair (44,33). No matter what I do, I'm going broke if he's got me beat going into the turn.

The tough part of this hand is how to play against the rest of his range. If he's got a flush draw I want to move in right away. If he's got a straight draw, then I've got to deny him odds to stack me. If he's got a big overpair then he'll probably call my turn push. If he's got a small overpair, betting in installments probably has the best chance of working.

Another question that comes into play here is whether or not chipEV is the same as $EV for this situation. I'm kind of an SNG newbie so I'm not really sure whether chipEV=$EV at this point in the tournament. Is it ever true in an SNG that chipEV=$EV?

jskinn04 · #5 06-25-2006, 10:35 PM

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i would raise more in the flop and push the turn.

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Problem solved. Thx man.

blackize · #6 06-25-2006, 11:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
When I played the hand at the table I wanted to milk him, fearing that he might fold an overpair if I pushed the turn. I guess his range here is overpairs, floated overcards, flush draws, trips (A5s), a full boat (22), a straight draw (A3,A4), or a small pocket pair (44,33). No matter what I do, I'm going broke if he's got me beat going into the turn.

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His range is probably bigger than this including 22-AA, overs, flush draw, straight draws(A3,A4,36,34). And yes barring any reads that this player is exceptionally tight postflop I'm going to the felt here.

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Is it ever true in an SNG that chipEV=$EV?

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Heads up this is true.

Having reread the hand I would probably raise more on the flop, but your raise is way better than a flop call.

nightlyraver · #7 06-25-2006, 11:57 PM

Unless I knew that UTG was an agg. that would automatically bet this flop, I think I'm actually going to lead on this flop.

Here's why:

Your job is to get your whole stack in, and if you get beat, so be it. You have 1450 after posting the big blind, so we need to figure out how to best get all those chips into a 250 pot.

(this line is taken from Sklansky and Miller's new book)
You need to get 'em in in chuncks. Here, we can either get them in as 3 chuncks - 200, 450, 800; or we can go for two chuncks - perhaps 350 and 1100. It's gonna be tough to use the 2 chunk approach on this board, so I think we NEED action on the flop.

If you check and you're not sure he will bet, your missing a crucial bet. Also, if he doesn't have anything worth calling or raising with on the flop, I feel like it's very unlikely that a turn card will improve him enough to get you all-in.

If you lead on the flop for 200, I would expect at least a call with a good ace-high or even king-high hand, and a raise with a big flush draw or an overpair. Any other holding probably won't give us significant action on the turn anyway.

Since he calls or raises with most of the hands that will give us turn action, leading the flop will help you get all-in by the river. If he raises you, say with J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], he's getting the first and second chunk of your stack in for you. Depending on your read of him, the third chunck will likely get into the pot w/o too much effort.

AMT · #8 06-26-2006, 12:09 AM

either call flop and c/r all in on the turn, as he is surely going to keep firing, or raise to t600/650 on flop and all in on the turn.

jgunnip · #9 06-26-2006, 02:13 AM

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either call flop and c/r all in on the turn, as he is surely going to keep firing, or raise to t600/650 on flop and all in on the turn.

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smooth calling the flop and check raising the turn is probably going to get villan to fold some hands you want staying in that otherwise would have if you raise the flop. Where c/raising the flop and leading the turn could easily be a 2 or a draw, smooth calling and c/r the turn is almost always a 5. most villans will understand this and rightly fold.