PLO8 $200 - Naked low

[MarkD]

Party Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $196
UTG+1: $98
MP1: $247.03
MP2: $50.32
Hero: $212.70
CO: $196.60
Button: $213.65
SB: $853.58
BB: $126.53

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP3 with 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 raises to $5</font>, MP2 folds, Hero calls, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($25, 5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 bets $23.75</font>, Hero calls, CO calls, SB calls, BB folds.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($120, 4 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero does what?

Reads:
I know nothing about SB or MP1. I have stats on neither one of them and I haven't been sitting at the table long. I think button is one of the best players at this level, capable of good laydowns, value bets, and making plays.

Also, is the flop call clear?

[TheStation]

Flop - call is fine, your not too deep....

I would check/call down betting the turn could be suicide as you are conterfeitable

If you want to build the pot up some you could throw a $40 bet in on the turn to build the pot more but I dont really see a lot of value in this - I am guessing MP1 also has A2 with a slight possibilitiy of 69xx and flopping the straight, if you want to find out which is true you could bet the $40, if he calls, only bet AI on the river if a K or J comes, otherwise check it down

[Jorge10]

Hero should check here. You have no protection in case a 2 or A hits. You also dont have a high. You should check and call the river bet.

[Fiasco]

I had to think about this one for a while. This is a great post for me, because its the kind of ambiguous situation that I find myself in all the time.

I think MP1 probably has A2xx or A23/A24. His opening raise to 2.5BB looks like a sweetener to me. it could also be somethign like AA2 or AA3. Anyway, I think he bet the flop with the nut low hoping to take it down, then checked the turn with the naked nut low, realizing he was likely quartered.

My first inclination when reading this post was to say "Fire at the turn!" (becuase Im a LAG and an idiot) but the more I think about it, the less of a good idea it seems. If you had as little as TPTK for high, I might suggest betting the turn, but as it is I think you have to check it. I dont see a nut low folding in this spot (at least not from an unknown player) and you could easily be in against a boat too.

All in all, im not sure the flop call is clear either. I have trouble putting MP1 on a hand that you want to be HU or multiway against. Very rarely youll be the only A2xx in this pot, but it doesnt seem likely.

This sucks, I find myself giving the weak-tight advise I so hate from others. Oh well.

[MarkD]

I bet the pot on the turn.

Here were my thoughts during the hand:

SB - I have no idea where is at in this hand. Possibly just donking off some chips on the flop with a bad hand of some sort. Maybe he has the high made or a weak low hand of some sort.

MP2 - If he has a two way hand like AA2 why not follow up with a bet on the turn? If he has the made straight with nut low (with a hand like A246) surely he should bet out. I think it's most likely that he either has the nut low or he has an AA3 or AA4 type of hand that he is kind of giving up on.

Button - He's a good player. He likes to call on the flop and likes to bet the turn when it's checked to him. I think that if I check he is going to bet very often here. He would definitely bet nut low + pair. If he bets it means that he probably has at least the nut low and that fact is going to force me to fold my hand on the turn. Also, because he is a good player and should semi-respect my game (or not, maybe I'm a donk - I sure felt like it yesterday), he should probably fold the nut low if I bet the pot.

So, those were my reads, for better or worse (comments welcome). So that's why I bet the pot on the turn. I wanted the good player to dump his probably nut low. I know I'm not going to make a straight fold for high, or if one of the other two have A2 then they probably won't fold but I think the good player has the other A2 and that he will fold if I bet the pot and I thought that would increase my equity in this pot substantially. I also thought that having the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in my hand slightly improved my semi-bluffing opportunities.

I';m really curious about my decision making process on this one. It appears everyone thinks cheking is the correct play here, and it may be, but I think if I do check that I will end up having to fold often after the button bets and I didn't want that to happen.

[morphball]

I think this is a really tough hand. One thing though, what does betting the turn accomplish? Will it convince the table you you have a boat? Or will it make another A2 fold? Can it do both?

I think betting the pot on the turn is more likely to represent a made high hand to the table which could cause two very bad things:

1. A fellow holding A2 may be more likely to think his low is good; and

2. A fellow holding a str8 is going to fold.

This is the opposite of what you want. You need a high throwing money in while the lows are folding.

The third possibility is some one has the boat and re-raises/checkraises, in which case you hope the others fold so it's just you calling.

[Hatchet]

I'm surprised everyone likes the flop call. Hero is very counterfeitable, has a slim chance at a high, does not know if the pot is going to be heads up or multiway, the pot is fairly small, and someone has expressed interest in the flop. This is PL not limit. This seems like one of those situations where you are either going to basically get your money back or lose a lot. Rarely are you you going to make money here.

[niss]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm surprised everyone likes the flop call. Hero is very counterfeitable, has a slim chance at a high, does not know if the pot is going to be heads up or multiway, the pot is fairly small, and someone has expressed interest in the flop. This is PL not limit. This seems like one of those situations where you are either going to basically get your money back or lose a lot. Rarely are you you going to make money here.

[/ QUOTE ]

What he said.

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm surprised everyone likes the flop call. Hero is very counterfeitable, has a slim chance at a high, does not know if the pot is going to be heads up or multiway, the pot is fairly small, and someone has expressed interest in the flop. This is PL not limit. This seems like one of those situations where you are either going to basically get your money back or lose a lot. Rarely are you you going to make money here.

[/ QUOTE ]

The first time that these thoughts occurred to me was during my decision on the turn. It's also why I asked about my flop call in the original post.

I tend to agree that this flop call is a mistake. Now that I am at the turn what do you think about my decision there?

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm surprised everyone likes the flop call. Hero is very counterfeitable, has a slim chance at a high, does not know if the pot is going to be heads up or multiway, the pot is fairly small, and someone has expressed interest in the flop. This is PL not limit. This seems like one of those situations where you are either going to basically get your money back or lose a lot. Rarely are you you going to make money here.

[/ QUOTE ]

What he said.

[/ QUOTE ]

Niss,

I am interested about what you think about my turn thought process. Even though getting there may have been a mistake, now that I am there I am curious about your thoughts on the situation.