Playing against a short stack

[brian8065]

I thought this was an interesting hand against a short stack, and could create a good discussion. This hand happened with less than 575 players left in a $10 buy in multi-table tournament. Roughly 2,300 players started, and we were well into the second hour of play. The average chip count was 4,000. The table was for the most part tight and cautious. MP3 had over 3,000 chips 10 hands earlier, and had lost a few hands to take him down to where he is now.

NL Texas Hold'em Level:7 Blinds (100/200) –
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: UTG ( $3700 )
Seat 2: UTG +1 ( $6300 )
Seat 4: MP1 ( $1800 )
Seat 5: MP2 ( $3600 )
Seat 6: MP3 ( $1290 )
Seat 7: CO ( $2700 )
Seat 8: Button ( $1000 )
Seat 9: SB ( $9000 )
Seat 10: BB and Hero ( $3120 )
Level:7
Blinds (100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to BB and Hero [ 6c 7d ]
UTG folds.
UTG +1 folds.
MP1 calls [200].
MP2 folds.
MP3 raises [400].
CO folds.
Button calls [400].
SB folds.
BB calls [200].
MP1 calls [200].

Total size of the pot 1,700

** Dealing Flop ** [ 3s, 5d, Jh ]
BB and Hero checks.
MP1 checks.
MP3 is all-In [890]
Button folds.

If you are the Hero, what do you do? I will respond later with what I did, and what I was thinking.

[stevepa]

Am I misreading this? You have a gutshot getting less than 3-1 with a guy behind you. The guy minraised after a limper when he has 6.5 bb left. He may as well show you his AA. I guess if you're somehow sure he has AK and that the guy behind you will fold, go ahead and call...Otherwise this is a very easy fold.

Steve

[footnbaseball]

Even if he's bluffing you're behind. This is an instant fold for me.

[bowski44]

calling off a 1/3 of your stack when you know your behind to represent some kind of wild image is not very wise.

[brian8065]

This is the rest of the story.

BB and Hero is all-In [2720]
MP1 folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ Th ]
** Dealing River ** [ 7h ]
BB and Hero shows [ 6c, 7d ] a pair of sevens.
MP3 shows [ Qc, As ] high card ace.
BB and Hero wins 1830 chips from side pot #1 with a pair of sevens.
BB and Hero wins 3480 chips from the main pot with a pair of sevens.
Player MP3 finished in 571 place
MP3 has left the table.

Even before the MP3 went all in I was sure he was going to. I felt that he would do that at this point whether the flop helped his hand or not. I think most players would go all-in in his situation no matter what they flopped. He had to win that hand, or be severely crippled. The board was such that it wouldn’t hit many hands that a player would bet pre-flop with. I figured there was a reasonable chance he didn’t have a pair beat.

The board was offering roughly 3-1 odds (74.4% - 25.6%). If he doesn’t have a pair I am a 62/38 dog, which is plenty of odds to call his bet. If he has AJ, then I am an 80/20 underdog, and not worth calling. If I estimate the chances of him having a pair higher than my 6 are less than 67% , then I should make the call. Under the circumstances I believe they are much less than 67%.

I also do not have to worry about him raising me, worsening my odds.

The other problem of course is the last remaining player. If I just call, and MP1 calls too, then I have probably made a mistake. That is why I went all in. Now the game has two players going all-in, which pushes out any drawing hands or small pairs that the MP1 had.

This shows that I won the hand, which of course is luck. I think my thought process was sound though. I was very happy to see I was against an AQ

[illini43]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I misreading this? You have a gutshot getting less than 3-1 with a guy behind you. The guy minraised after a limper when he has 6.5 bb left. He may as well show you his AA. I guess if you're somehow sure he has AK and that the guy behind you will fold, go ahead and call...Otherwise this is a very easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with Steve... and not just because...o well nevermind.

[Shaver67]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I misreading this?

[/ QUOTE ]

As I'm trying to start posting after a long lurk- I'll throw you a semi-analytical response if for no other reason than to get my own thinking ridiculed...

We have two choices here, he is a semi-thinking player or a non thinking one. I would be suprised if anyone here could find this(and very few where they can) a minraise appropriate situation. A non thinkign player's range is huge here which is what I'm thinking OP is banking on.

315,810 games 0.063 secs 5,012,857 games/sec

Board: 3s 5d Jh
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 31.1127 % 31.05% 00.06% { 7d6c }
Hand 2: 68.8873 % 68.82% 00.06% { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

We're getting 2.91-1 being offered 2-1 against a moron... not a situation I hate (however i rather hate getting all in with two to come with 7 high), except wait there is someone else left (who has a slow play percentage + some kind of made hand and he's an iddiot percentage but we have 7 high so he's in front when he makes a terrible call... and maybe he's not a moron but someone who gets this game just enough to be dangerous(mostly to himself) and his min raise represents a very small range...

17,820 games 0.005 secs 3,564,000 games/sec

Board: 3s 5d Jh
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 20.3030 % 20.30% 00.00% { 7d6c }
Hand 2: 79.6970 % 79.70% 00.00% { QQ+ }


Point being OP's heart was in the right place... wanting to call with a potentially decent price (and it worked out). But I don't think that price is good enough all things considered, and frankly not really even tempting for 30+% of my stack when i'm either barely getting my price or drawing real slim...