$27 - need me some maff skillz

[bluefeet]

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t400 with t25 antes (5 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t2375)
CO (t1480)
Button (t4855)
SB (t2200)
Hero (t2590)

Preflop: Hero is in BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to t1455 (All-in)</font>, <font color="red">Button raises to t4830 (All-in)</font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, Hero...breaks out the abacus

Fiarly inactive bubble type situation. It was actually 6-handed for quite some time up to the hand before this -- where our biggie here over pushed A9o from his SB vs. a micro AI.

CO is a solid 2'r.
Biggie has played so-so. Decent #'s...not too laggy, nor passive.

How about you math guys do some ICM here for me.

Despite a relatively 'healthy' stack, no where near ITM yet of course. Three-way blows though. But I DO create a 2k sidepot w/biggie.

Feel free to pitch your 'gut' here, but I'd love to have one of you smart guys do the math for me -- show me how bad of a fold/call this is.

CO knows he has to push here...he knows me as well. Not sure if that loosens him up, or tightens him [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
Button isn't pushing over more than 10-15% IMO, based on my read.





(I'm a MAINFRAME programmer too! Yeah, that old)

[bluefeet]

???


Alright...so SnGPT loves a call had biggie open-pushed w/15%. Side pot here basically equal to my remaining chips anyway...not a hard call I suppose.

Since you've already gotten your calculators out, let's try something a tad different though.

Let's give CO 600 of Button's chips. GO!!

[DevinLake]

I'm going to give this a shot. My first ICM in a three way pot. I would apreciate if you gave me the ranges though, so I don't exhaust myself completely.

[Cpaz]

You are ahead of button often enough to call here IMO. He's being greedy. Don't let him have those chips to himself.

Cpaz

[bluefeet]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm going to give this a shot. My first ICM in a three way pot. I would apreciate if you gave me the ranges though, so I don't exhaust myself completely.

[/ QUOTE ]

cool! try the OP, and the alternate stack reference both if you will.

um...ranges...

well, CO really should be push most any two -- knows that i know that he knows -- blah, blah, blah. let's go w/ 40% for grins. i'd like to use 12% for Button (because my read was impeccable of course [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ). again, for comparison reasons, i would like to see how the lack of a side pot affects AKs's attractiveness 3way. be sure to try giving CO 600 of Button's chips.

thanks, have fun!!

[aghasax]

Is there any chance you could post your calculations step by step when you're finished? I mean if that doesn't make to much work for you. I struggle with ICM calculations in far less difficult situations than this, and could use it as a sort of guide.

a

[billxo1b]

assuming
the short stack range is top 25% (22+,A4s+,K8s+,QTs+,JTs,A5o+,K9o+,QTo+)
the big stack range is 88+,ATs+,AJo+

fold ev = 0.208*36.79% + 0.1708*63.21% = 0.1845
call ev =
hero takes all: 0.3744 *39.90%
SS wins main pot and hero wins side pot: + 0.1777 *24.46%*55.493%
SS wins main pot and BS wins side pot: + 0 * 24.46%*44.51%
BS wins: + 0 * 35.844%
= 0.1735

so the call $ev is -1.1%

Probably the big stack's range can be wider than 7.1%?

If the ranges are 40%/12%, the call $ev is +0.85%.

12% probably a little loose for the big stack, I doubt he would over push with KJ/QTs here.

[JMills109]

I would call given stack sizes and Buttons range.

Ehh its alot closer when you alter the stack sizes....

when you enter those ranges youve got around 45% equity, but id suspect the 10% defined by SNGPT and Stove to be a little off of Button's real range (Hes not pushing with QTs is he?) Anyway, id still prolly call. (Is this terrible??)

[HighestCard]

[ QUOTE ]
I would call given stack sizes and Buttons range.

Ehh its alot closer when you alter the stack sizes....

when you enter those ranges youve got around 45% equity, but id suspect the 10% defined by SNGPT and Stove to be a little off of Button's real range (Hes not pushing with QTs is he?) Anyway, id still prolly call. (Is this terrible??)

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think its terrible to call. My first instinct was to call but the math shows it is very close.

One thing to consider, is how often does the big stack flat call with AA,KK,QQ?

[DevinLake]

For bluefeet's first stack size scenario, and ranges that he gave (CO-40%, Button-12%), I get the following:

fold ev = 0.208*59.15% + 0.1708*40.85% = 0.1944
call ev =
hero takes all: 0.3744 *41.92%
SS wins main pot and hero wins side pot: + 0.1777 *29.70%*65.40%
SS wins main pot and BS wins side pot: + 0 * 29.70%*34.60%
BS wins: + 0 * 28.38%
= 0.1915

Therefore, -0.3%.

Scenario 2, where CO have 600 of Button's chips is -1.33%