AQ unimproved river raise

Solid_p · #1 06-21-2006, 04:55 AM

Button is a 30/20/3 so far and UTG is as bad as it gets ( 85/19/0.9), so I'm not too worried about him. I'm probably folding to a 3-bet. Yeah? Or is calling better since I'm only gaining half the pot with a raise if he would overcall with an ace.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (5 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG calls, Hero caps, Button calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, Button raises, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (9.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises...

stigmata · #2 06-21-2006, 05:33 AM

UTG called two on the flop on a relatively drawless flop and then bet into two players on the river. Kinda suggests he has something. I would just fold the river.

Also, your raise doesn't really represent anything (it looks really wierd), so I think both players will call you with a decent pair.

Solid_p · #3 06-21-2006, 06:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
UTG called two on the flop on a relatively drawless flop and then bet into two players on the river. Kinda suggests he has something. I would just fold the river.

Also, your raise doesn't really represent anything (it looks really wierd), so I think both players will call you with a decent pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know that the river raise looks wierd, but... UTG would call this flop raise with a very (!) wide range (85vpip) and I wouldn't be surprised if he held T8, Q9, K7 etc etc. After the turn check through, the button is rarely holding a pair. And UTG likes to bluff at scare cards (should of mentioned this before).

#4 06-21-2006, 06:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Also, your raise doesn't really represent anything (it looks really wierd), so I think both players will call you with a decent pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's weird about it? A lot of hands could play this way. When button checks the turn he's probably not going to overcall with A-high, and therefore we raise UTG for value. We could have JJ+ or AJs for example.

If the raise is good or not is depending on how often UTG will bet with a worse hand or a better hand that he is willing to fold to the raise. If it is often enough for us not to fold then raising is better than calling.

Riina · #5 06-21-2006, 06:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
UTG called two on the flop on a relatively drawless flop and then bet into two players on the river. Kinda suggests he has something. I would just fold the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed. Next to that, a player like UTG gives you hardly any foldequity, so you're basically laying yourself the same odds, as an overcall for a split-pot.

There is some chance of having a two-way split instead of 3-way if UTG holds an ace as well, but the chance he has it and play it the way he does seems really slim.

So i would think it doesn't seem to matter that much, untill i read you are 'probably' not calling a 3-bet. If you do choose to make a call a percentage of the time, i fear you'll find yourself on the wrong side of the line pretty quick.

Wether i'd fold or call here (im not worrying button is holding a pair) seems to depend on my read. After his flop coldcall im inclined to fold though

mzzl,

MATT111 · #6 06-21-2006, 08:21 AM

I like it. BT almost certainly holds AK and UTG could have anything at this point. Also UTG is both aggressive and stupid enough to bluffbet the river with any too. I agree with OP that his calling 2 cold on the flop does not mean anything at all..

Jeffage · #7 06-21-2006, 08:57 AM

I don't necessarily cap preflop, but whatever. Flop is fine, turn is fine, river I hate. For one, it's doubtful button would check a pair on the turn and he'd prob bet AK also. So I'm not so worried about him really. UTG could easily have you beaten with any pair or trips and he's not folding a better hand than yours to a raise (though if he's awful he MAY call with a worse ace high). He could be betting a lot of crap though. I just call the river here and see if my hand is good. I don't expect an overcall behind me.

Jeff

silencio · #8 06-21-2006, 09:28 AM

Raising is obviously better than calling but looking at the action it sure looks like UTG has something which he is clearly not folding for one more bet.

MATT111 · #9 06-21-2006, 09:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't necessarily cap preflop, but whatever. Flop is fine, turn is fine, river I hate. For one, it's doubtful button would check a pair on the turn and he'd prob bet AK also. So I'm not so worried about him really. UTG could easily have you beaten with any pair or trips and he's not folding a better hand than yours to a raise (though if he's awful he MAY call with a worse ace high). He could be betting a lot of crap though. I just call the river here and see if my hand is good. I don't expect an overcall behind me.

Jeff

[/ QUOTE ]

So what hands are you putting BT on after he:
-3bets preflop
-raises flop,
-checks turn?

Jeffage · #10 06-21-2006, 09:35 AM

Whoops - I somehow missed the fact that UTG called two cold on the flop. Though, with his numbers, I think he could do that with a wide range of hands - Q10, ace high, whatever. Of course, he's likely to have some kinda pair since the board is drawless, but after the turn action, he could bluff also and the pot is somewhat large. I don't think a fold is terrible now that I'm looking at it again, but I don't think calling is bad either really. You're getting like 10-1 to call the river and like I said, I don't think button is a big factor here - plus if he dogged with like AK on the turn, he might not be able to overcall with it. Eh, I could go either way - but I lean towards calling the river. I'm not raising it, and I would prob fold it against a more sane player betting...but in this case, I don't mind calling.

Jeff