Screwed on the turn w/ TP+draw

[EgoSlasher]

Opponent is a solid TAG 18/13/2.4 32 W2SD

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero ?.

[sharpie]

Call with your gutshot and fold the river UI.

[True]

[ QUOTE ]
Call with your gutshot and fold the river UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

True

[mtgordon]

Just for the record, does the board pairing count as improving? I could see this guy being on two pair but if a 5, 6, or 7 comes there's a 2/3 chance that he just boated or you could still be losing to the straight or a set or a better A.

However, would a TAG 3bet w/suited connectors like 67? I'm guessing not so I'd think you're either up vs. a better A or a set. If this is true, how many outs do people think we have? 4 vs. a set, 7 vs. a better A. You're getting probably 7:1 post rake on the turn so you need 6 outs which seems high since only the 4 outs let you raise your hand on the river.

[EgoSlasher]

[ QUOTE ]
Just for the record, does the board pairing count as improving? I could see this guy being on two pair but if a 5, 6, or 7 comes there's a 2/3 chance that he just boated or you could still be losing to the straight or a set or a better A.

However, would a TAG 3bet w/suited connectors like 67? I'm guessing not so I'd think you're either up vs. a better A or a set. If this is true, how many outs do people think we have? 4 vs. a set, 7 vs. a better A. You're getting probably 7:1 post rake on the turn so you need 6 outs which seems high since only the 4 outs let you raise your hand on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]


I would say since he has 13% pf 2 pair is unlikely bordering on impossible. This is almost always a set ot TPTK. Actually, given his pfr(and I have 3k hands on him so these numbers are solid) 55 and 66 become less likely.

[milesdyson]

call with your gutshot, call the river unimproved. people bluff.