3/6 - a little flop decision

[Octopus]

3/6, live (La Center, WA), 9 handed.

In two hours, I have yet to see a check-raise from anyone. They have seen me fire twice with 88 on a 9622 board, but only one of the people who sees the flop in this hand was likely to have noticed. The only other hands I have shown were top pair or better on the flop.

I am on the button with AKo. There are three limpers and I raise. The BB and everyone calls. Five to the flop for two bets each.

The first two limpers are somewhat loose players (maybe high 20s to low 30s VPIP). The third plays about 75% of his hands. He is extremely passive and almost never folds before the river. The others will fold, though not as often as they should. The BB is pretty tight pre- and post-flop.

The flop is QT3r and they check to me. I bet.

[briankosydar]

I like the bet. Even with your descriptions I think you'll get at least one fold, which improves your holding. You have four absolute outs the nuts (jacks), and if you don't get C/R'ed, I'd feel comfortable that your 3 king and 3 ace outs are still live. If you do get c/r'ed, which from what you said seems very unlikely, you can call, then c/f the turn unimproved.

How are the games up at La Center? I played there once last summer and it was full of complete nits. It seemed like at least 4 people at my table were all friends , and they really avoided playing with each other.

[Grease]

Yeah?

Why on Earth would you check this flop? You might not have the best hand, but if they all call, you get a freebie.

[James.]

if for no other reason than to take a free turn card.

[Octopus]

This was my thinking, but a player whom I respect highly (and so does everyone here) suggested checking. When he suggests something, I tend to give it serious consideration.

As it happens, everyone but the last limper folded. He bet when an 8 came on the turn and I called. He checked a river blank and I checked behind. He had A8o.

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
This was my thinking, but a player whom I respect highly (and so does everyone here) suggested checking. When he suggests something, I tend to give it serious consideration.

As it happens, everyone but the last limper folded. He bet when an 8 came on the turn and I called. He checked a river blank and I checked behind. He had A8o.

[/ QUOTE ]

you know, taking into account the limit and the opponents plus your likely number of outs i think checking that flop is the superior play. and i don't think its that close(opponents and your position being the key).

[Octopus]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the bet. Even with your descriptions I think you'll get at least one fold, which improves your holding. You have four absolute outs the nuts (jacks), and if you don't get C/R'ed, I'd feel comfortable that your 3 king and 3 ace outs are still live. If you do get c/r'ed, which from what you said seems very unlikely, you can call, then c/f the turn unimproved.

[/ QUOTE ]

My holding is only improved if I am already ahead or if a pair folds. I would be a little surprised if both my A and K outs are good if I get callers among the first three. I am sincerly hoping to only get called in one (specific) place in which case I bet the turn if checked to, but a free turn card and the possibility that I am, in fact, ahead are my primary motivation for betting. I have a gutshot (and position), so I will have to call the turn if I get c/r'd here.

[ QUOTE ]
How are the games up at La Center? I played there once last summer and it was full of complete nits. It seemed like at least 4 people at my table were all friends , and they really avoided playing with each other.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have played there only this one time, so that is all I can comment on. I played Friday night 6-9pm during a high hand jackpot 'happy hour'. There was one player I didn't want there (though he was extremely nice) and another who played so few hands that he might as well have not been there. In addition to the loose guy in this hand there was a semi-wild card who was capable of playing any two cards, but played them reasonably well (if a bit too aggressively) post-flop. The rest of the table was like the other limpers in this hand, somewhat loose and too passive. Online, I would consider this a good table. Live, it was nothing special.

From what I saw of the other limits, they were similar, but I did not watch that long, so I do not know. They had seven tables ranging from 3/6 with a kill to 10/20, all hold'em. They also apparently have a 50 player Saturday morning tourney, $50+10 with two rebuys and an add-on, but I have not tried it.

[Jiggymike]

I usually bet here if only to prevent people from picking up draws on the turn because most people with 3 of a suit will fold (some live players will go the turn with a 3-flush). Its pretty unlikely you are ahead but I would want to get at least a couple of people out if possible just in case the turn improves my hand, they won't be around to hit on the river if they pick something up. Check isn't bad but I hate to give someone a flush draw on the river, only to hit my card and still lose; still a lot can be said for checking and limiting your losses in a hand like this agaisnt people who will call with any pair.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
[TURN:] As it happens, everyone but the last limper folded. He bet when an 8 came on the turn and I called.

[/ QUOTE ]
When an extremely passive player bets into you on the turn and you've got two overcards and a gutshot draw in a 6BB pot - I think you should be tossing it into the muck.

Your read may have been different - but, to me, extremely passive means not betting less than 2-pair.

[Octopus]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[TURN:] As it happens, everyone but the last limper folded. He bet when an 8 came on the turn and I called.

[/ QUOTE ]
When an extremely passive player bets into you on the turn and you've got two overcards and a gutshot draw in a 6BB pot - I think you should be tossing it into the muck.

Your read may have been different - but, to me, extremely passive means not betting less than 2-pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's make the following assumptions. He will bet or call on the river for sure. He will bet with two pair and check with a pair if a card which helps me comes. I will only bet or raise if I make the nuts. I will only call if I get help. I am always behind on the turn.

Given all that, after rake and tip, it turns out that if I have three overcard outs 79% of the time then I should call, else I should fold. If my three outs are never good and I play that way, then it costs me .4BB to call. If they are always good, I gain .13BB by calling.

If, however, all six of my overcard outs are good even 1 time in 15, then folding is a mistake even if all six are bad the other 14 times. (If I have 3 overcard outs half the time, then this goes to 1 time in 41.) I think this call is close, but I do not think it is a mistake with a read based on only two hours of play.