Reckless or Sexy?

[raytownloc]

UTG is loose passive, UTG+1 is 50/12/.86 WTS=20%

Party Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $3/$6
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, Hero calls, 2 folds.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7.33SB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">UTG bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6.17BB, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls.

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (8.17BB, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 folds.
Uncalled bets: 1BB returned to Hero.

Results:
Final pot: 8.17BB

[sharpie]

What's his PFR? You might find a fold PF. Flop is bad, you're barely getting the odds to peel and assuming this a free card play he has an overpair alot here and is 3 betting. Don't know what he folded here. Turn is fine. Does UTG+1 have Ax[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or Ax[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and fold them often enough on the river? If that wtsd is over a decent amount of hands I don't mind the river bet, it seems close. I would check behind without that wtsd stat.

Edit: There's also A7/A5, I like the river bet a bit more. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[raytownloc]

His WTSH stat is 20%. I was trying to feign overpair.

[BostonMetro]

I would probably call the flop. If so, when the turn comes a spade, you are in great shape to make a free showdown raise - you have some showdown value against a 12% PFR and you have some folding equity against his 20% WTSD. B/c the board is so draw heavy, if he calls you probably have to bet the river in behind (as you did with your line).

I wouldn't get to crazy with this flop play unless you are really trying to exploit his penchant for folding.

[DCWildcat]

You should cut off the action before he folds the river, otherwise you'll incur results-oriented thinking. River bet is fine. I'm not raising the flop.

[raytownloc]

I havent posted any folded hands before... didn't realize the difference. I'll edit it.

[raytownloc]

whoops too late to edit.

[Nick C]

Eh, the turn bet sort of adapts to the situation once UTG surprisingly folds the flop, so that's all right.

HU, you might as well bet the river. It may be what you need to do to win, and a bluff-checkraise doesn't seem like much of a threat versus this opponent on this card.

Probably he did fold a worse hand, though. UTG may not have, but it's hard to say what he had. His play doesn't make any sense.

Anyway, it worked out this time, but the flop raise seems very questionable to me. Among other things, you won't get UTG to fold overcards that have you dominated very often at all, so it's going to be very difficult to improve your draw. And your draw is pretty weak at the moment.

You set up a situation where you may win UI versus UTG, but you can't count on UTG+1 going away on the turn, and that makes things more difficult.

Still, at 5/10 in any case, I'm starting to think that the tables as a whole peel too loosely on the flop and then maybe also don't defend against aggro plays with showdown-value hands as well as they could, so pots aren't as protected as they seem sometimes. Those two things can sort of benefit pot-buying in a couple of ways: When people are peeling with weak draws that will rarely catch, the aggro player gains the flop calls from those draws when they miss. And then since players sometimes put the aggro guy on more than he has, they'll sometimes fail to "catch" but fold the best hand. Also, since the aggressive player isn't showdown-committed himself, he's not giving up all that much in implied odds, on average.

LAGs overdo it, routinely, but they do sometimes have short-term success when they don't run into good hands, and it's something to think about, I think. Peeling and even bluff-calling have their place, but unless someone is actually calling down, these plays lose their effeciveness versus someone who won't let up until played back at. And when the player in question is unknown, well, that presents a problem. He's going to buy some pots unless the table catches some hands or gets suspicious or is just inclined to show down loosely (which isn't uncommon at all, I'll admit, but I'm trying to describe why hit-and-run plans, while risky, can have success if the player in question lucks into the right table and doesn't run into good hands).

[BostonMetro]

You don't agree that appearing to slowplay an over pair or trips here by calling the flop and raising the turn will give you a lot of folding equity along with your flush draw and any overs that are good? While I don't use the WTSD stat very much in my play. I guess you are going to have to put in another bet to knock out (possibly) any nut FDs, and this makes it too expensive of a play.

You can make an argument that he should cut off the turn action and make it a play along because aces other than AK might fold to a raise here.

[callmedonnie]

His call looks a lot like a heart draw. The turn is great and the river is a bet the way it was played, you don't want to get soft there. I wouldn't want to make it a habit to use this line often.

And FWIW, I wouldn't have included the river action for the sake of the post.