Microstack UTG Hand Analysis

[MUD]

[ QUOTE ]
Table has been limpin like crazy, so i havent had any push oppurtunities. Who pushes any two UTG here? or let the blinds pass.... which i dont think is a good idea.


PartyPoker $55 Speed Tournament, Big Blind is t600 (7 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

Hero (t1510)
UTG+1 (t2690)
MP1 (t3543)
CO (t4712)
Button (t1520)
SB (t4345)
BB (t1680)

Preflop: Hero is in UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="red">Hero raises to t1510 (All-in)</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, SB calls t1210, <font color="gray">BB folds</font>

[/ QUOTE ]

So I tried to do some calculations on this hand that was posted earlier

What I tried to do was analyze what we are worth in the BB next hand if we call correctly. So I just shifted ahead one hand keeping everything the same

BB Hero 1510
sb 1680
But 4345
MP2 1520
MP1 4712
UTG+1 3543
UTG 2690

I assumed the following reads:
UTG, UTG+1 and MP1 would raise/shove 22% each (33+,A2+, KJo+,KTs+,QJs)
MP2 and MP3 both at 40% (22+,A2,K2,Q9o,Q5s,JTo,J8s,T9s
SB at top 70%

I also assumed once one person shoved no one else called or raised

Then using SNGPT and Excel running some quick and dirty calcs came up with following values

In the 52% UTG-MP1 shove we're worth $30.5
30% either MP2 or button shoves we're $34.5 on average
and 12% of the time SB shoves $35.5
They all fold and we take a walk 5% of the time= $49

Weighted average of all those is $33.25


So as UTG you should push anything worth more than $33.25

With my standard reads of:

BB 70%
SB 35%
The rest at about 15% (close to loose on SNGPT)

We should push 22+,A2,K2,Q3o,Q2s,J5o,J2s,T6o,T2s,96o,93s,86o,84s, 75o,74s,65,63s+,53s+,43s

In other words don't push any offsuit 5 or lower without a Q or higher