KJs hand

[BreakfastBurrito]

Party $1/2, I haven't been playing no limit for about 18 months and am still feeling it out. I have about $275 and raise to $6 UTG with K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Only the SB calls and he now has $71 left. Flop is 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Checked to me and I bet $9, he min checkraises. What're his likely holdings, and what's my play?

[Pokey]

He's probably got a 7 or an overpair, but it really doesn't matter -- he's too short at this point for you to have any subtlety left in your arsenal. Three-bet all-in and see what happens. As I read it, you owe $9, the pot has $41, and he has $53 behind; a push is barely a pot-sized raise here. That means you're getting 2-to-1 odds on a hand that's unlikely to be mathematically worse than that even if he calls 100% of the time. When you factor in the reasonable chance that he'll fold to a push, this is a safely +EV move for you. It also avoids the awkwardness of trying to extract money from a flush with three to your suit on the board, and also the difficult position you will be in if you smooth-call and he pushes a non-club turn. Avoid those pitfalls and put it all in on the flop.

[BlackjackAJ]

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It also avoids the awkwardness of trying to extract money from a flush with three to your suit on the board, and also the difficult position you will be in if you smooth-call and he pushes a non-club turn.

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Bingo.