Group C Advancing Teams - World Cup

JohnnyHumongous · #1 06-11-2006, 02:19 AM

Here's a bet I made... I think it's awesome, tell me if I'm right or not haha.

I bet the exacta of Netherlands 1st, Argentina 2nd at +225 and also the exacta of Argentina 1st, Netherlands 2nd at +224. So basically if both Netherlands and Argentina advance I get 2.24x my money, if either don't advance I lose. The other two teams in the group are Serbia/Montenegro and Cote D'Ivoire... So the oddsmaker is basically saying that 55% of the time one of either S/M or CI will advance?? Seems ludicrous to me. Any thoughts?

Instinct · #2 06-11-2006, 02:31 AM

Looks like a great bet to me.
Where did you do this?

bills217 · #3 06-11-2006, 02:33 AM

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So basically if both Netherlands and Argentina advance I get 1.24x my money

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JohnnyHumongous · #4 06-11-2006, 02:56 AM

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no

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JohnnyHumongous · #5 06-11-2006, 02:57 AM

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Looks like a great bet to me.
Where did you do this?

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Pinny, group exacta wagers. The odds won't be the same now I'm sure because of Argentina's win today.

SmileyEH · #6 06-11-2006, 03:06 AM

If S/M or CI qualifies >12% of the time you lose. Still like it?

-SmileyEH

JohnnyHumongous · #7 06-11-2006, 03:09 AM

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If S/M or CI qualifies >12% of the time you lose. Still like it?

-SmileyEH

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How do you figure?

SmileyEH · #8 06-11-2006, 03:14 AM

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If S/M or CI qualifies >12% of the time you lose. Still like it?

-SmileyEH

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How do you figure?

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If first exacta wins you net 0.24 units. If second exacta wins you net 0.25 units. Otherwise you net -2 units. Therefore if you net 0.245 units 89% of the time and net -2 units 11% of the time you net 0 overall.

-SmileyEH

JohnnyHumongous · #9 06-11-2006, 03:29 AM

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If S/M or CI qualifies >12% of the time you lose. Still like it?

-SmileyEH

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How do you figure?

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If first exacta wins you net 0.24 units. If second exacta wins you net 0.25 units. Otherwise you net -2 units. Therefore if you net 0.245 units 89% of the time and net -2 units 11% of the time you net 0 overall.

-SmileyEH

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Do you really think this is true??

If first exacta wins I net 1.24 units. If second exacta wins I net 1.25 units. Otherwise I net -1 units. Therefore the breakeven point is roughly 55% for S/M or CI advancing.

Instinct · #10 06-11-2006, 03:32 AM

But if either of the two team don't qualify you will lose both bets, thus two units.