LO8 $1/$2 Turn nut low, betting capped

[Cooder]

I'm new to Omaha. What to do with a low where it looks like you are going to be quartered?

I've only played 10 or so hands at this table, so not much of a read yet. SB and UTG+1 have seen most every flop, and there are frequent raises.

Pacific Poker
Limit Omaha Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Cooder is UTG+2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, Cooder calls, 3 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB checks.

I'm hoping to be raised so I can re-raise. Good plan?

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5SB, 5 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, Cooder calls, CO folds.

Raise with four opponents and just a low draw?

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4.5BB, 4 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises</font>, Cooder calls, <font color="#cc0000">SB 3-bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 caps</font>, Cooder calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Nut low, but no counterfeit protection. My guts tell me I'm going to be quartered or worse. Comments on all streets welcome.

[neverforgetlol]

fold after the 3-bet/cap, you're in trouble here. rest is fine. the only reason to raise preflop with this is if you can get it heads up or close, which won't happen.

[flexus]

folding for two more bets on the turn would be stupid IMO. You are likely to get quartered but you'll still make money making that call.

I am not known as a math freak but I thought I'd give it a go. Feel free to point out any mathematical errors or unreasonable assumptions.


If we assume Hero will always be quartered, he will still be right to call, even though he will be counterfeited 4/44 times (assuming he is always up against another A2, remember).

When hero is faced with another two bets on the turn, the pot has 20.5 big bets in it. Lets assume it has 24 big bets in it at the showdown (excluding heros last two bets on the turn, and his river bets). Most often it will be larger, but lets say 24 to have some margin. Hero will most likely also have to call another bet on the river, and sometimes he may even have to pay more than one river bet. Lets say he has to call two bets on the river on average. This means Hero has to pay 4 bets on average to see the showdown, for a 40/44 chance to win 1/4 of the final pot of 24 bets.

Now, lets play back the hand 44 times
Hero will win 1/4 * 24 * 40 = 240

Since hero will be quartered he will get back only a quarter of all the bets he puts in, so he will loose

4 * 4 + 3/4 * 4 * 40= 136 bets. This means a net profit of (228-136)/44= 2 bets each time he makes this call.

And this is making some IMO reasonable assumptions. Even though hero will be sixthed some times, this call is still correct.

in fact, lets assume we get sixthed every time,

of 44 times hero will win: 42 * 1/6 * 24 = 168 bets

Now since hero will get back only 1/6 of all the bets he puts in, he will loose 5/6 of all bets that he puts into the pot the times he wins 1/6 of the pot.

and he will loose 2 * 4 + 5/6 * 4 * 42 = 148

for a net profit of (168-148)/44 = 0.45 bets every time he makes the call.

I was quite surprised myself by the reslut of these simplistic calculations, so I might have got something wrong.

regards
flex

[greatwhite]

[ QUOTE ]
fold after the 3-bet/cap, you're in trouble here. rest is fine. the only reason to raise preflop with this is if you can get it heads up or close, which won't happen.

[/ QUOTE ]
It would be better to fold to the turn bet-raise then this. I still think it would be correct to call down however.

[Fiasco]

This looks good, but I think there is far too great a chance that it will get capped three handed on the river.

This is one of those times where laying it down for a bet and a raise is the right play. Holding onto it is NOT a disaster though.

[grjr]

I've been playing quite a bit at Pacific lately and I've seen A LOT of hands like this that were capped on the turn and river and NOBODY had A2.

There's no way it would be correct to fold this at any point unless an A or 2 hit the river.

[Bullet_Dodger]

[ QUOTE ]
fold after the 3-bet/cap, you're in trouble here. rest is fine. the only reason to raise preflop with this is if you can get it heads up or close, which won't happen.

[/ QUOTE ]

you should fold to the bet/raise before the 3bet/cap. i think its close, but given i cant find myself getting away from this.

[grjr]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
fold after the 3-bet/cap, you're in trouble here. rest is fine. the only reason to raise preflop with this is if you can get it heads up or close, which won't happen.

[/ QUOTE ]

you should fold to the bet/raise before the 3bet/cap. i think its close, but given i cant find myself getting away from this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm warning you, if you fold this at any point at Pacific you'll end up breaking your keyboard. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] I've taken half of some pretty big pots in hands just like this there.

Of course I've gotten eighthed and sixthed in back to back hands there but I figure that's a once in a lifetime thing and I've already gotten mine out of the way. So I have that going for me, which is nice. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Cooder]

Flexus - Thanks for the analysis. Of course, adding the times the hand will be counterfeited makes the net outcome somewhat worse.

[niss]

Let me pile on ... the play at Pacific is absolutely awful. There is no way I would fold this on that site.