Metagame Question

[Jake (The Snake)]

Party Poker 3/6 6max

Hero RAISES UTG, MP calls, CO folds, Button 3-BETS, Blinds fold, Hero calls, MP calls.

Flop is 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero checks, MP checks, Button BETS, Hero RAISES, MP folds, Button calls.

Turn is Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero bets, Button RAISES, Hero calls.

River is T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero checks, Button BETS, Hero RAISES, Button Calls.

Hero shows 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for the rivered straight.

1. How many people at the table, on average, will remember that you raised UTG preflop?

2. Of those people, how many will actually alter their play at some point because of that info?

[Scary_Tiger]

1. Button usually.
2. None.

[True]

Don't even raise T9s UTG, Josh made a post about it a while ago. Someone brought up a similar hand and wondered for "Metagame/Shania" how good it was to raise T9s from UTG, the answer was that raising 56s on the button is a laggy enough image. Most average players will never remember a hand.

In this hand, c/ring the flop and betting the turn is not a good play against a 3-bettor of an UTG raise at this level. He will often go to showdown with even AQ and it is likely to be costly for you. On this flop he is unlikely to believe you have paired with the board, so he will think A) a bluff/semi-bluff or B) a worse A high and call down.

I would probably not make the plays you made on any street other than perhaps the river.

True

[Jake (The Snake)]

This isn't a real hand. I pretty much never do anything preflop for my image or for Shania.

I disagree with you that c/ring the flop is not profitable against many opponents, though that really has nothing to do with what I'm trying to get at.

Do you have the link to the post Josh made?

[buzz_ly]

The only people who care are TAGs and they just have PAHUD reads anyway [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[True]

[ QUOTE ]
This isn't a real hand. I pretty much never do anything preflop for my image or for Shania.

I disagree with you that c/ring the flop is not profitable against many opponents, though that really has nothing to do with what I'm trying to get at.

Do you have the link to the post Josh made?

[/ QUOTE ]

I just spoke with him, he said its not "real bad", sometimes he raises 87s but I think at higher levels Metagame is a greater consideration. I think however that if you did it 100% of the time, it would be a -EV play.

I think the flop is actually quite significant, against a raise preflop I would c/r. Against a 3-bet I am not c/ring an average opponent.

True

[Nick C]

People at 6-max pay more attention than players at full ring. Partly, I think, this is because there are fewer players to keep track of.

However, an individual hand is unlikely to create an image for you, unless it really stands out. What people will notice is if you've been running hot and betting and raising a lot, and also (I think) they'll tend to notice that you're tight if you're playing at a loose table.

Also, like Scary Tiger said, this is a hand Button may in fact take great notice of. If he adjusts, the adjustment he'll make is that he'll start playing LAGgier, possibly against you specifically.

Anyway, obviously I don't really buy the theory that online players aren't paying any attention, and I especially don't buy it at a 6-max table. However, I'll also say that it seems like I'm usually not the guy people are paying attention to. The players who stand out are the big LAGs.

[raytownloc]

In my case I would definitely notice, and remember it... although if your stats after a hundred or so hands was PFR 15% or thereabouts, I wouldn't start reraising to isolate, though I would keep in mind that you could be raising with a larger range of hands. I think there are lots of players who do this kind of thing intentionally to create an image, but I try to focus more on the hard stats.

[MacGuyV]

[ QUOTE ]
In my case I would definitely notice, and remember it... although if your stats after a hundred or so hands was PFR 15% or thereabouts, I wouldn't start reraising to isolate, though I would keep in mind that you could be raising with a larger range of hands. I think there are lots of players who do this kind of thing intentionally to create an image, but I try to focus more on the hard stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree - if you have a halfway decent sample size on someone and his PFR is non-astronomical, I don't think it's going to be profitable to start isolating him with weak Aces and medium Queens based on a loose raise that he made.

However, the theory that a fish might start coldcalling more with dominated hands when you raise KQ up front may be plausible, but people leave tables so frequently online that I think this advantage is incredibly slim if it exists.

[DavidC]

FWIW I put you on 88 or 77 on the flop. I'm pretty surprised at your hand. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]