HSP - Could Elezra get away from set over set?

bdiddy12 · #1 06-05-2006, 06:50 PM

In episode 5, the following hand occured:

Buss is UTG, and calls with 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Negranu on his left raises to 2600 with K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 Folds to Elezra who calls with 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Farha Calls wtih 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

1 fold, Buss calls and the flop comes
2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Pot is 11,800.

Checks to Negranu who bets 7,500.
Elezra and Farha both call, and Buss pushes all-in for 56,000 more.

Negranu folds and Elezra calls, and Farha Folds.

This was well before Buss loosened up, and he was playing very few hands. I'm curious what range of hands he thinks Buss will play preflop and be strong enough to check-raise this flop. 7-8 and multi-draw hands seem unlikely because of the pre-flop action.

Buss had folded overpairs previously and just called down one on another occasion. Other than a set, the only hands Buss Might play this way seems like JJ-QQ, and even then his play seems at least unusual.

I really think Elezra could have got off of this, anyone else think so?

A_C_Slater · #2 06-05-2006, 07:17 PM

I think it's possible to fold a set here if you know Buss well, which I'm sure he does. Against a random unknown then no way.

Could Buss play 87 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] like this here? The reraise is big enough and the stacks are deep enough that I think you could find a fold. But we know the results so it's hard to look at hands like this with a hindsight bias.

It would be easier to get away from bottom set agsint a big reraise from a tight player on a 26T montone flop then one with flush and straight draws.

Lawman007 · #3 06-05-2006, 08:08 PM

In HOH, Harrington says that every time he hears someone saying that they laid down a set on the flop because they thought their opponent had a higher set, he thinks "idiot."

lemonPeel · #4 06-05-2006, 08:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
In HOH, Harrington says that every time he hears someone saying that they laid down a set on the flop because they thought their opponent had a higher set, he thinks "idiot."

[/ QUOTE ]

Barry G laid down a set of Q's with an Ace on board. I highly doubt Harrington thinks of Barry G as an "idiot"

Oh and not only that, but his opponent then showed him a set of aces.

Lawman007 · #5 06-05-2006, 08:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In HOH, Harrington says that every time he hears someone saying that they laid down a set on the flop because they thought their opponent had a higher set, he thinks "idiot."

[/ QUOTE ]

Barry G laid down a set of Q's with an Ace on board. I highly doubt Harrington thinks of Barry G as an "idiot"

Oh and not only that, but his opponent then showed him a set of aces.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just telling you what the guy said. Since HOH is about tournament poker, his comments may only apply in a tournament context. I don't think Action Dan is a big cash game player.

Personally, I would lay down a set in a tourney or cash game if I had a very good read on my opponent and put him on a higher set, but I would have to be VERY confident in my read in order to do that.

A_C_Slater · #6 06-05-2006, 08:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
In HOH, Harrington says that every time he hears someone saying that they laid down a set on the flop because they thought their opponent had a higher set, he thinks "idiot."

[/ QUOTE ]

This is in reference to tournaments where you have to increase your volatility in order to win. This is not an end all be all rule for deep stacked cash games.

Example: 1-2 NL everyone has $1,000

UTG open raises to $8 and 2 cold callers and you call on button with 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] :3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Blinds fold.

24$ in pot FLOP: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

UTG bets $20, MP1 calls, MP3 (rock) raises $80, You make it $240, UTG folds, MP1 folds, MP3 (rock) pushes for $752 more.....

Are you calling?

fatmanonguitar · #7 06-05-2006, 11:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Personally, I would lay down a set in a tourney or cash game if I had a very good read on my opponent and put him on a higher set, but I would have to be VERY confident in my read in order to do that.

[/ QUOTE ]

i.e., never?

Xellos · #8 06-06-2006, 02:57 AM

If they were a lot deeper and the board was a lot less connected he might have been able to get away from it, but I doubt he would. I feel confident in saying that if you go broke with a set every time you're up against a higher set on the flop you will still do fine if you're a good player.

Then again I'm the world's worst NL player, so maybe you can get away from a set on this board with these stacks.

Shandrax · #9 06-06-2006, 08:06 AM

Folding a set on a flop where no straight is possible should be -EV in the long run. Folding the 2nd nuts when Jerry Bus goes all-in is probably +EV [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

noggindoc · #10 06-06-2006, 10:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Example: 1-2 NL everyone has $1,000

UTG open raises to $8 and 2 cold callers and you call on button with 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] :3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Blinds fold.

24$ in pot FLOP: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

UTG bets $20, MP1 calls, MP3 (rock) raises $80, You make it $240, UTG folds, MP1 folds, MP3 (rock) pushes for $752 more.....

Are you calling?

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe