Big pair vs. potential bigger pair, stud hi: too tight?

[Paul77]

Was playing stud hi today, and had KK8 (pocket kings) vs. an ace. The ace raised; there was another ace out. I re-raised, and it got heads-up. The ace caught a blank, and bet into me, my kings did not improve. I folded. Was this too tight on my part? I can post the hand if it would help.

[benwood]

This is a common & opponent read related subject that can't be answered in a pat manner.You did take a conservative view on the hand,but my guess is that you were correct.

[beta1607]

We need more information such as the stakes and a read on your opponent but generally speaking a fold wouldn't be terrible here.

Also it is worth noting that according to the Stud 8 Chapter in SSII two aces being up increases the odds that one of the players has a pair of aces by a decent margin.

[Paul77]

>>Also it is worth noting that according to the Stud 8 Chapter in SSII two aces being up increases the odds that one of the players has a pair of aces by a decent margin.

Yep, I read that too, but that was referring to stud 8 and I was playing stud hi at the time, but it may very well be aplicable to stud hi as well, maybe even more so.

The stakes were low, a 1/2 game on Stars.

[frappeboy]

You were incorrect to fold 4th street here. Once you re-raise third, you must go to the river ESPECIALLY with his dead ace. There is no inbetween with this hand. Either you re-raise and go to the river or just fold.

The only time you should be folding this hand after you re-raise is when your opponent makes an open pair and you are pretty sure he has aces.

[greenage]

I’d like to see the hand posted.

If you’re going to fold on fourth then why raise in the first place?

Since it’s heads-up, I might just call down even though I’ll never know if he pairs his side card.

Unless I didn’t add right, the pot should be offering you about 6:1 on your call and you’re about a 2:1 dog when he has the Aces.

Do you guys see any benefit to a raise on fourth?

[benwood]

When I first read your post I was thinking that you had split K's instead of K's in the hole .With burried K's,he is more likely to bet into you with something like Q's or J's in the hole.So,when when your K's are in the hole,I think the fold is incorrect.

I would be interested to know what other posters think is the right play if you have split K's.It may be right to call here,too.I'm not sure.

[Alex/Mugaaz]

You're not so far behind that you can't peel 1 to catch a king or 2pair. You're getting like 6 to 1 or so now? If I atch nothing that improves me I suually fold fifth.

[frappeboy]

[ QUOTE ]
You're getting like 6 to 1 or so now?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not the correct way to think about this hand, you need to think about first your odds of winning, and then how much it will cost you to see the hand through. In this situation 4 small bets went in on 3rd street, and usually there is 1 small bet in antes/forced bet (it could be 2 small bets depending on ante structure, but I'm assuming this structure was tight). So right now there is approximately 2.5 big bets in the pot. It costs you 2.5 bets to see the river card assuming your opponent bets into you the whole way, so you are getting 5BB-2.5BB, or 2-1 to call this down. Your hand is about a 2-1 underdog if he SHOWS you his aces. So you are getting correct pot odds to see the river.

Now you are actually doing much better than what the odds suggest, and here is why. First of all he may not even have aces in which case you are actually a favorite. Secondly, if your opponent is a weak player, you're gonna outplay him on later streets. For instance he might still keep on coming when you pair your door card, or if hes weak he might check aces/aces up on the river. All these things add to your positive expectation.

The problem with thinking about the pot odds right now compared to your chances of winning is you'll ALWAYS get the right pot odds. For instance, lets just say there was only 3 small bets in the pot, or 1.5 BB. Now when he bets on 4th you are getting 4-1 to call. Now on 5th street there is 2.5 BB so you'll be getting 3.5-1, and so on. But if you calculated how much it costs you for the whole hand, you would be risking 2.5BB to win 4BB, or 1.6-1. Since your hand is a 2-1 underdog it now becomes correct to fold.

For more information on this concept check out the "Theory of Poker", chapter effective odds.

[Paul77]

Yeah, it was too tight in hindsight. My thinking was he had the aces, and I didn't want to chase from behind, but I should have at least seen fifth.