PP 100/200 hand SB vs. CO limper

[miami32]

Okay so I never post here but here is my first shot. I'm playing 100/200 PP.

In a hand earlier I had QQ in the bb and in capped pot 3 way this guy turned the nuts with 9-10. He doesn't play too well. I had no poker tracker stats on him.

So it folds to milochino who is the villian and he limps in the cutoff. Button folds. I complete with K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. BB checks.

Flop:
Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img],8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img],3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Pot:300

I lead, the bb folds, and the limper raises.

What is your move?

[Evan]

3 bet the flop. You should have raised preflop.

[miami32]

Do you think there is any merit to flat calling and checkraising the turn? Also, what hands do you put him on. I found this to be so strange. A late pos open limp. I'm going with Q10, QJ, 910 maybe. I dunno.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you think there is any merit to flat calling and checkraising the turn? Also, what hands do you put him on. I found this to be so strange. A late pos open limp. I'm going with Q10, QJ, 910 maybe. I dunno.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sure, calling and then check raising is good too. I wouldn't do either all of the time. I don't know what he has, he almost definitely sucks if he open limped in the cutoff, so he could have all kinds of crap.

[luckychewy]

Is calling and leading the turn bad? I'm pretty sure you want at least 1 bet to go in on each street, and if he checked the turn behind that would be pretty bad.

Assuming you whiff the turn c/r and the river blanks, is this a good spot for a river c/r? I think not, but I'd like to throw it out there.

[Assani Fisher]

FWIW, I was the hero in this hand(miami is a good buddy who was observing my table and I was later discussing this with). The LP limp is what is really throwing me off here. I think that we are very uncertain about this hand: He could have us crushed, he could be attempting to get a free card on the turn, or we could have him crushed...we really don't know.

I think that we want to keep the pot as small as possible here since we're unsure of our situation, but at the same time, we want to gather information.

After thinking it over, I think the optimal play is to call his raise and lead out on the turn. Therefore, you aren't giving him a free card and the pot is being kept relatively small(as when compared to check raising the turn and/or 3 betting the flop).

If he flat calls the turn, then I'm leading the river. If he raises, then if I respected him more I could maybe lay it down, but since he has played so awkwardly(9T hand a bit ago and the very fact that he is limping from LP) I'm most probably calling him down here.

[tongni]

Good analysis. I would probably bet a little less than 1/4th pot on turn, and if he raises the max, then I would feel pot committed but have to call. Sometimes you just have to go broke with one pair.

[DcifrThs]

i disagree w/ your thinking here.

we've established it is unlikely the limper plays well (see T9 4 bets preflop which in most cases has to be a mistake somewhere...and 4 bets on flop...again, maybe fine but maybe not). either way, we need to greatly discount his large hand holdings here since it is unlikely he plays well (this seems counter intuitive but the widening of his hand range w/ the limp + flop raise coincides with the above thought and evidence vs. the "oh he might/must be trapping here" logic)

for this reason, id think it's far more likely he's limping w/ a hand you dominate or beat way too often to not raise and thus let the bb in for free and him in for only 1 bet. so raise pf.

id say many hands w/ pairs or draws on this flop are likely and since you didn't raise pf, the strength of your hand is pretty concealed. since we know from earlier he'll put in many bets you MUST 3 bet this flop. i h8 keeping the pot small here. you have the Ks, a nice redraw, a solid hand vs. a suspect player. if there were EVER a time to get a nice pot going HU, it's now.

calling his flop raise and leading the turn i dont think gets enough money in there since he may now just call down or fold (those exact same hands he'd call your flop 3 bet with and then call down or call your flop 3 bet-pot odds- and then fold the turn...in the latter case you cost yourself about .5bbs). same when he CALLS your turn bet w/ the same draw he raised the flop with (costing another .5bbs if that is indeed what he has)...id say those instances comprise a large portion of the combinatoric possibilities given what we know.

if he raises your turn bet after your flop 3 bet id be worried but would call this one down. we are seeing a showdown here and i certainly dont mind doing so in a decent sized pot here.

hope this helps.

-Barron

[Assani Fisher]

[ QUOTE ]
Good analysis. I would probably bet a little less than 1/4th pot on turn, and if he raises the max, then I would feel pot committed but have to call. Sometimes you just have to go broke with one pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I tried to bet 1/4th pot on the turn, but the slider just wouldn't move.

[Assani Fisher]

Results of hand:

I actually didn't play it how I advised here. I called on the flop, then check raised the turn. He re raised me after my check raise. I called and then check/called the river. He had KK and took it down.