JJ with lots of action on the flop...

[meep_42]

Keep it or drop it?

< 5 hands of history with either player.

Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Pre-Flop:
<font color="red">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="red">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero caps</font>, CO calls, Button calls.

4 to the flop for 13.5 SB.
Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero checks, CO checks, <font color="red">Button bets</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises</font>, <font color="red">CO 3-bets</font>, <font color="red">Button caps</font>...

Hold 'em or Fold 'em?

-d

[bobhalford]

I'd fold em. Looks like you are drawing to 2 outs.

[poker_n00b]

[ QUOTE ]
Keep it or drop it?

&lt; 5 hands of history with either player.

Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Pre-Flop:
<font color="red">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="red">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero caps</font>, CO calls, Button calls.

4 to the flop for 13.5 SB.
Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero checks, CO checks, <font color="red">Button bets</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises</font>, <font color="red">CO 3-bets</font>, <font color="red">Button caps</font>...

Hold 'em or Fold 'em?

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

clear fold imho

[TheHip41]

muck city.

[Heisenb3rg]

I'd fold them without a second thought.
Not even close IMO.

[allaboutmyfetti]

quick clarification :

3 to the flop right? (Hero, CO &amp; button)

Also, assuming CO will call his last bet, we're getting 12:1 odds on calling the cap. Is this enough to call with a BD str8 draw, bdfd (which very well might not be good) along with our 2 outs? It seems that if we spike our jack we'd have huge implied odds based on how pf &amp; flop were played out.

[meep_42]

I think 5-8 big bets is a reasonable expectation for spiking the J (c/r with 2 callers, bet/1 caller on river - bet/3bet, bet/1caller). I'm getting 25:2, meaning i'd have to make up about 15-17 SB to continue with just the J outs (which may have straight and flush redraws against it).

-d

[PotLuckPete]

I'm out.

Maybe I'm being biased, but had almost the exact same hand on Pacific about 3 hours ago.

I had JJ, Player 1 had AA and the other 2 had QQ and KQs for the flush draw.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
I think 5-8 big bets is a reasonable expectation for spiking the J (c/r with 2 callers, bet/1 caller on river - bet/3bet, bet/1caller). I'm getting 25:2, meaning i'd have to make up about 15-17 SB to continue with just the J outs (which may have straight and flush redraws against it).

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

when you turn a set, you will still get rivered 15-20% of the time. You need to add that into your calculations. Cause you will bet, they will raise, you will call. You aren't making up 6-7 BB by spiking a set anyway. Easy, easy turn fold.

[meep_42]

TheHip41,

I wasn't advocating a position with that post, just supplying some information to the reply prior to it.

When I hit a J on the turn, the action would likely go:
a) bet-call-call (2 bets)
b) check-check-bet-raise-(20call/80fold)-call (2.2 bets)
c) bet-call-raise-3-bet-(5call/95fold)-call (4 bets)

On the river, I've assumed 1.5 bets when i'm good.

So, yes, I miscalculated, 3.5-6 BB, tops.

Do you really think one of the two opponents in on a FD or will make a straight on the river 15-20% of the time, given the action to this point?

-d