Sometimes I Think About Folding

[MLG]

Busy playing, too lazy to type it up.



Hand #32357717-32 at Sun5pm200-015 (No Limit tournament Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 04/Jun/06 17:29:46

tunataster is at seat 0 with 2940.
BenLeon is at seat 1 with 2435.
bdub7 is at seat 2 with 3055.
BubBanks is at seat 3 with 2700.
Poker24 6 is at seat 4 with 5170.
Mark470 is at seat 5 with 3830.
anakinso is at seat 6 with 4725.
TakeYourTime is at seat 7 with 2340.
NoMoreOuts is at seat 8 with 325.
iLykE2fOld is at seat 9 with 2910.
The button is at seat 8.

iLykE2fOld posts the small blind of 10.
tunataster posts the big blind of 20.

tunataster: -- --
BenLeon: -- --
bdub7: -- --
BubBanks: -- --
Poker24 6: -- --
Mark470: -- --
anakinso: 2d 3d
TakeYourTime: -- --
NoMoreOuts: -- --
iLykE2fOld: -- --

Pre-flop:

BenLeon folds. bdub7 calls. BubBanks folds.
Poker24 6 folds. Mark470 folds. anakinso calls.
TakeYourTime raises to 110. NoMoreOuts folds.
iLykE2fOld calls. tunataster folds. bdub7 calls.
anakinso calls.

Flop (board: Ad Qd 3s):

iLykE2fOld checks. bdub7 checks. anakinso bets 320.
TakeYourTime goes all-in for 2230. iLykE2fOld goes
all-in for 2800. bdub7 folds.

[cbiz]

getting 2.3 to 1 here i think you have to call the only flush draws are KJ diamonds and K10 of diamonds and it is doubtful takeyourtime has those as he raised preflop (although still possible).

[DemonDeac]

i gamble this early on

[MLG]

cbiz, i think you are very wrong about the amount of flush draws he can have.


also what do you put SB on, and what is your equity against that?

[Pat Southern]

When I first read this I thought you were absolutely crazy for even thinking about folding this. After running some ranges I still think its a call, but I can see your reasoning if your ranges are a little tighter.
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
MLG: 33.6489 % 33.65% 00.00% { 3d2d }
TYT: 27.7321 % 24.20% 03.53% { AA, QQ, AJs+, KdJd, KdTd, JdTd, AJo+ }
IL2F: 38.6191 % 35.08% 03.54% { QQ, 33, AQs+, KdJd, KdTd, JdTd, AQo+ }

You gotta be a little more than 30% in the main pot to make this +EV because you're behind the SB's range. Wow, I can't believe that I'm also leaning towards the fold camp now. I still think its a call but I think a fold can definately be justified, especially if you have great control over your table.

[THEOSU]

Honestly,

I don't think about folding this all too often. It's probably a leak.

[Pat Southern]

[ QUOTE ]

Honestly,

I don't think about folding this all too often. It's probably a leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ya, I immediately thought "OMG PAIR+FD ALLLIN ALLIN ALLIN!!!" Its threads like these that make me realize I have so much more to learn. Thanks MLG for posting this.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]

Honestly,

I don't think about folding this all too often. It's probably a leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't *normally* think about it but that check/push call is a bunch of your outs, so....

[A_PLUS]

Maybe I'm weak, but fold is my first thought here. I was suprised my our equity given Pat's range, which I think is reasonable. All this money in the pot, my gut says we are drawing to 1-6 outs a significant % of the time here. On UB, I dont know that you see AJ here in either spot all that often. Overbet pushes, are way more likely to be monsters or draws here.

Either way, this is very close.

[dmk]

folding/calling are probably too close to matter. gamble as you wish