I try something possibly stupid

Newtown · #1 06-03-2006, 03:04 AM

Villain is 28/10/.6 and weak. Often checks when he misses. After he checked the flop I put him on a A high which he probably wouldn't fold if I just lead out on the turn so I tried something different. Thoughts?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, Button raises, 1 fold, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: (2.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero raises

MrWookie · #2 06-03-2006, 03:08 AM

Mmmmm, suptdi.

bobhalford · #3 06-03-2006, 03:28 AM

it's not worth it.

milesdyson · #4 06-03-2006, 03:37 AM

lol

stlip · #5 06-03-2006, 03:50 AM

Are we sure that a 28/10 guy is worth defending the BB against with A4o.

One of the leaks in my game that I've been working on is to defend less - just because I know how to play blind defense I was costing myself money in my eagerness to play cop and take on every suspected stealer. I've gone from folding to BB steal 49 percent up to 55 percent and my loss rate in BB has come down from -0.17 to -0.13.

With a player like villain I would now wait for a read that he actually tries steals with something weaker than A7o before defending. Anyone else play it this way?

milesdyson · #6 06-03-2006, 03:52 AM

A4o = nuts!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

whatev.

honestly, who else DOESNT think that the new milky way commercials are just pure genius?

waffle · #7 06-03-2006, 04:24 AM

sometimes it's OK to fold what might be the best hand

waffle · #8 06-03-2006, 04:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
my loss rate in BB has come down from -0.17 to -0.13.

[/ QUOTE ]

variance. honestly, the idea that you now fold 6% of your hands that you didn't used to when facing a steal has changed your overall EV in the BB this much is absurd.

Axiom27 · #9 06-03-2006, 06:10 AM

you are risking 2 BB on the turn to win a pot with 3.25 BB in it. for it to be a sucessfull play, the odds of him folding need to be 2:5.25 = 38% of the time or more. obviously he's not folding a flush draw or any piece of the flop.

since you can never be totally confident about a read... let's guess he has Ace high or overcards something like 80% of the time. you need him to be willing to fold half of those times he holds something like AJo. that gets you 40% folds you need to show a profit.

so, i'll disagree with the others. IF you almost confident your read is good (he didn't bet means he missed the flop AND he is weak and will fold here frequently with overcards), i think it was a sound play. that said, i would rarely do it because i don't trust a read to be good anywhere near that much. he could have been playing 77 or K9 sheepishly on the flop, etc.