Did I have the pot odds to call the turn?

menchbrew · #1 06-01-2006, 11:59 PM

All opponents have VPIP > 35%. I thought I had 6 outs on the turn. Was I getting enough odds on the turn to call?

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 raises, 3 folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks, MP3 bets, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+1 bets, MP1 calls, Hero ???, MP3 calls.

ChuckyB · #2 06-02-2006, 12:05 AM

If you think trip-tens would be good...yep.

40:6 getting 7.25:1...if you won't get raised behind, you're okay.

Buckmulligan · #3 06-02-2006, 12:06 AM

bet the flop.

On the turn, with implied odds and all, you probably only need 4 outs.

As it turns out, you probably have more like 7 or 8 outs, so ya, easy peel.

Nick C · #4 06-02-2006, 12:18 AM

With bottom pair, a one-card straight draw, and a draw to two-pair that puts four to a broadway straight on the board and sometimes a 3-flush as well, you have 9 very murky outs here. You also have a PFR behind you to act who very well may have hit this board hard.

Your biggest problem is that there's just a very good chance that catching a J will not give you the whole pot. So you need to discount your J outs, maybe to about 2 or so (although you'll have the only king sometimes, on other occasion more than one will be out there). Your K outs are highly unreliable -- let's call it 1 out, maybe? I'm reducing your T's to 1.5 or so (this could be generous) because you may make trips at the same time MP3 makes a boat. Also, there's some chance UTG+1 is donking because he just made a straight.

This may all sound pessimistic, but you do have three opponents who continued past the flop on a scary board. And you know two are hanging around even though the board got scarier, and one of them woke up, and we have yet to hear from the PFR.

Although I don't hate a call, I suspect folding is better. If you call and then MP3 raises, then that's really unfortunate.

Edit: Yikes. It's occurred to me that with the PFR in the hand, there's a very good chance our king "outs" are useless. Except for pocket pairs below TT, catching a king will leave us behind any standard preflop raising hand -- sometimes because it won't improve us enough and sometimes because it will improve the PFR more.

Point Blank · #5 06-02-2006, 12:22 AM

**grunch**

with 2 in and hero at MP2 I'm not calling with this hand ... I'd raise if UTG1 and MP1 are not tight (no way I like this hand against 3+).

on the turn I wouldn't put much bank on your hand.

Nick C · #6 06-02-2006, 12:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]
As it turns out, you probably have more like 7 or 8 outs, so ya, easy peel.

[/ QUOTE ]

I realize we're at a loose 0.5/1 table, but isn't this highly optimistic?

If MP3 is raising reasonable cards, his range hurts us a lot. Partly this is because he could easily have a K, and a J is worth no more than a two-way chop if he does. If he has AA or QQ instead, well, maybe a J will give us the whole pot, but there goes our T and K outs. If he has JJ, well, then his hand only steps on our K outs, but all of a sudden we only have two J's available to catch.

I could go through all of the possibilities, but I think you get the idea. And he's not even the only one who's still playing. Hopefully the turn donker just has Ax, but that is optimistic, and the turn caller's hand could present problems for us too.

inferno · #7 06-02-2006, 04:03 AM

fold preflop

Fantam · #8 06-02-2006, 08:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
With bottom pair, a one-card straight draw, and a draw to two-pair that puts four to a broadway straight on the board and sometimes a 3-flush as well, you have 9 very murky outs here. You also have a PFR behind you to act who very well may have hit this board hard.

Your biggest problem is that there's just a very good chance that catching a J will not give you the whole pot. So you need to discount your J outs, maybe to about 2 or so (although you'll have the only king sometimes, on other occasion more than one will be out there). Your K outs are highly unreliable -- let's call it 1 out, maybe? I'm reducing your T's to 1.5 or so (this could be generous) because you may make trips at the same time MP3 makes a boat. Also, there's some chance UTG+1 is donking because he just made a straight.

This may all sound pessimistic, but you do have three opponents who continued past the flop on a scary board. And you know two are hanging around even though the board got scarier, and one of them woke up, and we have yet to hear from the PFR.

Although I don't hate a call, I suspect folding is better. If you call and then MP3 raises, then that's really unfortunate.

Edit: Yikes. It's occurred to me that with the PFR in the hand, there's a very good chance our king "outs" are useless. Except for pocket pairs below TT, catching a king will leave us behind any standard preflop raising hand -- sometimes because it won't improve us enough and sometimes because it will improve the PFR more.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this post (and NC's subsequent post).

I think that you have to seriously discount your outs, as you could improve and still lose or only split the pot.

So I think that makes this turn a fold.

Bill King · #9 06-02-2006, 10:51 AM

not even close.. if you receive your J it will put a 4-liner on the board with no information about anybody elses hand.

you only have 4 pure outs.

Buckmulligan · #10 06-02-2006, 11:54 AM

oops, I was missing the fact that the pfr had yet to act behind us for some reason.

Ya, nevermind. Probably much closer to a fold now.