6/2 Box Office Wagering: The Break-Up

[llabb]

Last week was an easy win on the X-Men Over. This week is much tougher, with the only release being a romantic comedy featuring Vince Vaughn and Jennifer Aniston, The Break-Up. Analysis below, Cliff Notes at bottom.

Pros: Marketing has been strong, with lots of print ads and commercials. Public awareness is high, with the high profile divorce of Jen and Brad, and subsequent romances of Brad and Angelina, and now Jen and Vince. Vince is a decent draw, as one of the more popular comic actors currently, and coming off of a great summer comedy last year in The Wedding Crashers. This is the first romantic comedy in a long time, since February, and is good counterprogramming to the recent action and drama movies. There is little competition, with an X-Men that will drop to the $40's or so, a Da Vinci Code and Over the Hedge that will drop to the teens, and no other new releases.

Cons: Jen is fading, and not a big draw on her own. She did fine opposite a name comedy actor like Ben Stiller in Along Came Polly, but she and Kevin Costner bombed in Rumor Has It. The Break-Up is getting poor reviews, at 27% at Rotten Tomatoes and 42 on Metacritic. The premise, a romcom based on a couple splitting up and constantly bickering, seems shaky, as fighting is not what couples look for in a date movie.

Wagering line: I expected a line in the high $20's, low $30's, and that's what we got. It jumped around between 27-30, and seems to have settled around 28.

Pinny:
Over 28 million -110
Under 28 million -105

WSEX:
Over 27.5 million -160
Under 27.5 million +120

Prognosticators: Various analysts have predicted $26, $31, $26, and $30 million. Various comparable movies have earned anywhere from $20-40 million on opening weekend.

Wager: So that pretty much leaves us stuck. All this write-up for no play. I just can't see a side I'm comfortable with, although I mildly like the Over. Over $28 at near even money is a reasonable wager for a small amount, but I'm staying off it for now.

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This weekend is not a total loss at the box office, though. Pinny also appears to be offering a wager on two movies competing in their 3rd week out: The Da Vinci Code vs. Over the Hedge.

In their 1st weekends, Da Vince opened huge to $77 mil, while Over the Hedge earned $38. Da Vinci has gotten slaughtered by the critics, though, with a 23% RT, 46 Meta, and C+ Yahoo, while Over the Hedge is a fun little family friendly movie getting a 72% RT, 67 Meta, and B Yahoo. User ratings are a little closer, but OTH still beats Da Vinci. Furthermore, kids' movies have better legs than action/dramatic thrillers.

This sets the stage for their 2nd weekend, where Da Vinci fell hard by 56% to $34 and OTH fell more mildly by 30% to $27. Da Vinci should fall more mildly next weekend, while OTH will be consistent. Daily results have OTH narrowing the gap slightly each day. So we appear to be set for a fierce battle, that really could go either way.

Prognosticators have Da Vinci at 17, 16, and 17.7, while OTH at 16, 17, and 16.4. So it really could go either way. I see it as pretty dang close to a 50-50 proposition. However, the line offers a +EV betting proposition, with the following currently available at Pinny:

Movie with higher weekend box office:
The Da Vinci Code +195
Over the Hedge -225

Not sure why the line is so far off, but this seems like a good spot to get almost 2:1 on your money in on a 1:1 shot. Since it could go either way, though, and with OTH having better legs, it's not nearly as strong a play as last week.

If I were rating the plays on a 1-5 scale, I'd give last week's X-Men prop 5 stars, and Da Vinci over OTH 2 stars. This corresponds roughly to the units I've put on each, but everyone's units and money management systems are different.

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Cliff Notes:

No Play on The Break-Up Over/Under 28. Wouldn't argue with the Over for a small amount if someone liked it.

2* play on Da Vinci earning more than Over The Hedge at +195. Worthwhile edge at +150 on up, and +EV at any positive odds.

[AJackson]

Good analysis, just like last week.

I was set to bet the over heavily a decent line like 28, but the reviews are scaring me which pisses me off. Based upon the trailers I was really looking forward to a great comedy.

Now I'm thinking about how Jen's last couple of films have flopped, which was unsurprising since they looked lame to start with. I'd like to give VV credit for for the strong openings of Wedding Crashers and Old School, but we're missing key actors in this movie. I am still a fan boy of the VV and Jon Favreau, though. And Joey Lauren Adam's voice gives me wood.

On the flip side, what else are people going to see this weekend? X3 will drop hard. Da Vinci will drop hard. Not much adult fare out there and no date movies at all.

I'm going to put some on the over, but only about 20% of what I did on X3.

I also like the bet on Da Vinci. Although factors like length of film and that entire families will see OTH together are going against the bet, I think curiousity about the Da Vinci will remain strong enough.

[ETW]

as usual great analysis llabb. if you were to look up "no-play" in the gamblers dictionary this movie line would probably be there. This is bascially a coin flip, I will keep my X3 winnings and wait for a better spot. For what it's worth if somebody made me bet at this line I would take the + money for very little since it is pretty much a coin flip anyways.

[ThaHero]

Yeah I haven't done my own analysis(too busy partying this week) but know that you aren't alone llabb. I'm layin off too this week. We should have a few good plays this month though with Cars(next week) Fast/Furious 3, Superman, and a few other movies coming out. And Pirates is right around the corner. We should get a good line somewhere in there. I'm curious to see the Cars line and see if they over or under rate it like they did X Men.

[llabb]

Good comments so far. These filler movies are just to pass the time, while we wait for the big guns like Superman and Pirates 2.

The Break-Up seems to be seeing decent early sales, as I've heard that some showings are actually selling out. Anecdotally, it's on a similar pace as Wedding Crashers so far, which had a $33.9 opening weekend. That seems a little high though, as Break-Up carries a PG-13 rating, so should get more matinees and less late shows compared to Crashers, which would have gotten more evening business, as an R-rated comedy with nudity. Still, it may carry more draw than I thought, and end up close to Crashers, having one of the main stars and with Jen getting near-naked, making it an okay date movie for lots of guys. And the marketing has definitely been all over the place.

Besides the early word, Along Came Polly, which got $27.7, is probably one of the best comparisons, another romantic comedy with comparable star power. And Break-Up should do better than Failure to Launch, which got $24.4 earlier this year, with the slightly lower popularity of stars Matthew McConaughey and Sarah Jessica Parker. But I didn't take the Over earlier, because with all the bad reviews, I was a little scared of another Bewitched type scenario. It had big stars with Will Ferrell and Nicole Kidman, along with the awareness factor of updating a famous TV show, but it looked bad and bombed with critics, and only made $20.1 in its opening weekend.

Anyway, the lines at the books are closed, but TradeSports still makes a market at a line of $27.5, with the buy (Over) running at -150 and the sell (Under) running around +100.

With the good early word and Crashers comparisons, I'm still thinking high $20's, with a chance of breaking into low $30's FWIW. Still not taking a side though.

[AJackson]

I caught the movie this afternoon and I was pleasantly surprised after having my expectations lowered by the reviews. It's hard to categorize the movie and I think a lot of the bad reviews were partially brought on by the trailer build expectations of a straight romantic comedy.

Not saying this is a great movie, but enough people will like it to give it some good word of mouth.

The theater was half full for an afternoon showing, which is a very good sign. Probably 75% women, which I expected. My local theaters put it in their big theaters, which while X3 has more showings, it indicates they have a strong belief there will be a heavy turn out.

I feel pretty good about my over position, I wouldn't be surprised to see low 30s.

[llabb]

Good call on The Break-Up, Jackson. Looks like it'll blow past the Over, on it's way to high $30's and perhaps even $40's, as of now. If it had gotten even halfway decent reviews, I might have joined you on the Over, but was too gunshy because of the Bewitched comparison and absolutely horrendous critical onslaught that TBU was getting.

OTH and DVC are running neck and neck, separated only by $0.15 mil. We still got a shot at it, but I'd guess that OTH has the edge over the rest of the weekend, since as you say, entire families will be going to see it. At +200 I'm fine with it, though, since I know I had the right side of the bet, regardless of the outcome.

And what's up with X-Men absolutely tanking? Sure, most blockbusters fall hard like 50% in their 2nd weekend, but X-Men's gonna fall like 70% which is insane. No one thought TBU had a chance of the #1 spot over X-Men, but looks like that's what's going to happen. Guess only the built-in fanbase that went to X3 opening weekend really wanted to see it, and the horrible direction and plot changes are sinking in.

[DaBruce]

LLabb,

Where do you go to find the current status of the movie's revenue? I took Davinci with you at +230 on Pinny, and want to know where I can sweat it, thanks.

[AJackson]

Thanks. I had a good feeling about The Break-up, wish the bad reviews hadn't made me cut my position in half.

The X3 fall off is a little surprising, although I expected a larger than usual drop off. If I were to guess, repeat business is way off. There wasn't anything especially compelling or interesting about the movie that would encourage teenages who are apt to repeatedly watch a movie to go again. I also think word of mouth has been poor, I know I've not had anythign good to say about the movie.

I'm not feeling good on the DVC bet, but like you pointed out, it was about the odds.

[AJackson]

[ QUOTE ]
LLabb,

Where do you go to find the current status of the movie's revenue? I took Davinci with you at +230 on Pinny, and want to know where I can sweat it, thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

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