Can you use poker "pot odds" while making Sports bets?

synth_floyd · #1 01-15-2006, 06:00 PM

A few days ago I checked an online betting site (Bet365) and they were giving me 10 to 1 on the Steelers winning the AFC. Since there's only 4 teams in the AFC and I'm getting 10 to 1 on the bet I put down $10 on the Steelers. This seems similar to the concept of "pot odds" in poker. Was my reasoning for making this bet correct? [On a side note, the Steelers did beat the Colts]

DougOzzzz · #2 01-15-2006, 06:03 PM

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A few days ago I checked an online betting site (Bet365) and they were giving me 10 to 1 on the Steelers winning the AFC. Since there's only 4 teams in the AFC and I'm getting 10 to 1 on the bet I put down $10 on the Steelers. This seems similar to the concept of "pot odds" in poker. Was my reasoning for making this bet correct? [On a side note, the Steelers did beat the Colts]

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No, it's not correct. Steelers had to win 2 games on the road for this to happen. If each team were equal and all games were played at neutral sites, your reasoning would be correct.

BobJoeJim · #3 01-15-2006, 10:03 PM

The concept of pot odds is merely that you want to figure out what your odds of winning are, figure out how much you make if you win, and if the payout is favorable then place the bet (call), if it's unfavorable then fold.

In sports betting the concept is the same, but you don't have to count anything, the book tells you what the odds are, all you have to do (not that it's easy) is calculate your odds of winning. In this case, just because Pittsburgh was 1 of 4 remaining teams, it doesn't mean their odds were 1 in 4. To win the AFC they had to win 2 games in a row, first on the road at Indy, then against Denver or New England. If they were 50% to win each of those games then they'd have been 25%, but as it was Indy was a 9.5 point favorite, suggesting their odds of winning that game was only somewhere around 20%. From there, even if they were 50% to win their second game (unlikely at Denver) that still makes them 10% to win the AFC. So you're getting 10 to 1 pot odds, but you're drawing to about four outs.