Early UFC 61 Lines Up at Pinnacle

Trencherman · #1 05-30-2006, 06:33 PM

Andrei Arlovski has opened as a -240 favorite against Tim Sylvia (+220). I think it will be very interesting to see if this line can hold. Many on here and elsewhere took Arlovski for value at around -400 in the last fight. Did the upset by Sylvia really change anyone's opinions this much, or is there some exceptional value here?

Meanwhile, Tito Ortiz comes in at -480 versus Ken Shamrock (+440). I'm not sure what to think about this one. Clearly Ortiz should be a heavy favorite, but at what point is there value on either side?

Tuds75 · #2 05-30-2006, 08:26 PM

Arlovski's line will be interesting to watch. He opened at
-350 and then went up to over -400 and then went actually went down close to -300 before settling at close to it opening lines. If people had reason to belive in Silva then, they have even more reason to like him as a dog. I would be surprised if we didn't see a similar up and down fluctuation in the odds.

If anything after seeing Arlovski's suspect chin I don't think I could ever be overly confident betting on him when he is facing a legit puncher. THen againg Tim showed again that Arlovski can put him down on 1 punch.

I still like Arlovski at anything under -280.

Tuds

jmillerdls · #3 05-30-2006, 11:30 PM

I don't care what anyone says, Silvia is a bad matchup for Arlovski. I think the first meeting of theirs has over-inflated Arlovski's reputation in people's heads, but he has had, and always will have a suspect chin. With Silvia's long arms, and powerful punches, he is always capable of ending the fight with one punch against Arlovski.

I don't think I could ever see myself putting money on Shamrock against anyone who has won in the UFC recently. The way he beat Kimo is about the only possible way he can win a fight these days. He doesn't have the power in his hands to knock anyone out. His wrestling is not good enough to take anyone down, or stop the takedowns of a solid wrestler. His conditioning is unimpressive. He has no submission game (that could actually submit todays MMA fighter), and he is too emotional.

So, in saying that, there is definately a point in which it is not worth betting on his opponent...however, I can not see a point to where I would bet on Shamrock.

Trencherman · #4 05-31-2006, 12:02 AM

During the first few hours of betting, I saw Arlovski drop early to -231 before climbing to his present peak of -278. It seems the early money is coming in pretty heavily on the former champ.

Ortiz's price has also gone up significantly, and the line currently stands at -540.

Performify · #5 05-31-2006, 10:23 AM

I wouldn't bet on Shamrock here at anything less than +2000.
And even that's probably not a very +EV line.

swope · #6 05-31-2006, 03:33 PM

I think this is Ken's last payday, but putting money on *anyone* who is -450 or worse in MMA is sketchy business from an investment perspective.

As Tuds said, Arlovski at under -280 is good money but Im not going to bet him for the same reason I didnt bet him last time; hes a little overrated. The deficit of real upper tier fighters makes AA look like a God. AA will probably win this fight, sure, but Sylvia *is* a bad matchup for him, and will probably win 1 out of 3 times. I dont need those types of odds, there are much safer plays out there on the WWGP card for example.

Trencherman · #7 05-31-2006, 03:38 PM

Speaking of the WWGP, what plays do you like?

swope · #8 05-31-2006, 11:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Speaking of the WWGP, what plays do you like?

[/ QUOTE ]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showth...e=1#Post6018926

i see some good opportunities.

Fhil Ivey · #9 06-01-2006, 02:21 PM

betting on tito at -480 might have a very very tiny edge. the arlovski line looks about right. I don't see much value here it looks like the books are getting better at this. I pass unless the lines start dropping.

mosta · #10 06-02-2006, 12:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Meanwhile, Tito Ortiz comes in at -480 versus Ken Shamrock (+440). I'm not sure what to think about this one. Clearly Ortiz should be a heavy favorite, but at what point is there value on either side?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm confused to see that Shamrock is even fighting since seeing the Rich Hamilton fight. Did Shamrock not stand there with his hands down waiting to get hit, go down, and get out in that one--in an obvious dive? he still gets paid to appear and gets bet on after that? (being far from an MMA expert I did some searching and found boards where other people also thought he dived against hamilton. doesn't mean it's right of course.)