(NL10) K8 on BB, river decision

[jakerc]

my notes on this guy say "calling station donk" after he called me down and sucked out on the river to steal a 95BB pot from me. i put him on a fairly wide range of hands. is this an easy fold?

Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $12.62
UTG+1: $3.85
MP1: $6.20
MP2: $28.20
MP3: $4.12
CO: $8.12
Button: $8.80
SB: $5.90
Hero: $5.40

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
5 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, Hero checks.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($0.3, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($0.3, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $0.3</font>, CO calls, SB folds.

River: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($0.9, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $0.7</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $2</font>, Hero...

[NewUser2006]

What range of hands do you put him on?

Deciding whether or not to call a bet or raise on the river is probably the easiest part of hold'em.

Assign probabilities based on what you think he holds, compare that to pot odds and make decision based off of that.

[Yaboosh]

Meh, you beat all K's but K2. Go ahead and call.

[jakerc]

[ QUOTE ]
What range of hands do you put him on?

Deciding whether or not to call a bet or raise on the river is probably the easiest part of hold'em.

Assign probabilities based on what you think he holds, compare that to pot odds and make decision based off of that.

[/ QUOTE ]

well, from his previous play i have to assume he's donktastic, so would put him on any K, any 8 (especially something like 83) and any deuce. how would i go about calculating those numbers based on pot odds?

[NewUser2006]

The pot currently has $3.60, and it costs $1.1 to call, which means you're getting a little better than 3.2:1 on your money... this means that you only have to win the hand ~31% of the time to show a profit.

If you think he's equally likely to have any of the hands you've said, then it is a definate call (you beat almost two times as many hands that he's likely to have as you lose to). I'd discount the times he has an 8, since calling stations usually won't be raising the river there.

It's up to you to decide the exact probabilities (thats what a read is), but as long as you think you'll win 31% of the time, you MUST call this.

[jakerc]

well i ended up calling and he flipped over A2, which capped off the end of another losing session for me at NL10 [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

i don't feel so bad however looking at the numbers, cause i think i can definitley win that hand 31% of the time. thanks for your help newuser.

[Tupacia]

Given the line he took, I think this is a pretty easy call.

[Mroberts3]

Make a note of his play and move on. I think you made the right play in this case. Use this info for making similar decisions in the future. IE if he makes a similar play in the future maybe consider that he has a good hand a higher % of the time.