Top pair weak kicker in small pot- play or fold?

[Douglas Leslie]

Dramatis personae-
Small blind and UTG are fish. UTG stats are 37:5:0.95 . He would play any ace if he had it. He is generally passive after the flop, but slightly more aggressive on the turn and river. The BB and button are both TAGs. BB is very aggressive post flop and likes to check raise even with marginal hands where he is not going to fold anybody out. Hero has top pair with a kicker that will lose to any ace other than A2 or A4 (which it might tie). There are no re-draws and there is a flush draw on the board in an otherwise unco-ordinated flop. The pot is small. Should hero fold, call or raise?

Ultimate Bet 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, 4.
[color=#666666]1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, [color=#666666]3 folds</font>, Hero calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) A, 5, 8 [color=#0000FF](6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, [color=#CC3333]UTG bets</font>, UTG+2 folds, Hero?

[Bluffoon]

I generally raise this preflop to isolate guys with LP stats like that.

I think you have a reasonable shot at this pot. The bettor could be betting a draw or a split middle pair given that two people already checked the flop and you have position. The board isnt as uncoordinated as it looks. There are some gutshots and 67 has an openender. If I was UTG I'd bet a gutshot in a small unraised pot with an ace on board after some checks hoping to pick it up but with outs.

I would raise, bet a non spade turn if called and check behind on the river if called again.

[geoda]

imho, you should fold this hand. Unless you spike a 4, you can do no better than tie against another ace. Everybody with a flush draw will call you even if you raise the flop. If you had a redraw for the flush, it could be different, but in this situation, I think you should fold. Even if you are ahead on the flop, you will often loose this sort of hand.

I'm only a Limit 1-2 player, so be carefull with this opinion lol.

bye

[Haupt_234]

Raise preflop after 1 limper and your on the CO.

I like a flop fold here because the pot is small and the LPP FISH is betting on your right side.

It is unlikely he has a draw (although possible) given his PoF AFF and there are still a few players to act behind you, meaning the pot could be checkraised. You also said BB was tricky and likes to checkraise, so that means even more potential for trouble.

Haupt_234

[Douglas Leslie]

Oops- the hand converter seems to have misread the pre-flop betting. In fact UTG limped in as well as UTG2, so there were six SBs in the pot for the flop, minus the rake.
This is the sort of bread and butter hand where I am sure that many of us go wrong and leak money as a result.
It is surely a question of hand evaluation. I have top pair with a nothing kicker and no re-draws on a mildly threatening flop (spade flush draw being the main concern). I would rate the hand as weak to marginal. In a smallish pot (six SB being right on the borderline in that respect) I don't want to be committing too much money to the pot in the face of opposition aggression. My read on UTG is that he will bet any ace pre-flop and also bet out when he pairs one. Given his general passivity on the flop, I have to guess that he is more likely to be betting an ace than a flush draw or an underpair, in which case I need to spike a 4 to have any chance of winning the pot. I agree with Buffoon's line IF I decide to play the hand. Assuming that all goes to plan (everyone else folds and I get to a showdown for two more BBs), I am investing two BBs to win 7 BBs before knocking off the rake, so let's say 6.5 BBs is what I expect to win if UTG doesn't have an ace and doesn't outdraw me. The question is whether I think that the odds of UTG having an ace or outdrawing me are better than 1 in 4 or thereabouts. My feeling is that he will have the ace or outdraw me more than one time in four, so it is correct to fold. Against a more aggressive player, I might feel differently.