Revisiting Bankroll Requirements & Variance (Large MTTs)

[PiedPiper]

I am currently in the midst of a significant drought where I have gone 47 straight MTTs without a significant cash, and have had an ROI of -63% over this period (that's a negative number there!).

When I do some quick estimates, it seems like I shouldn't be worried and should expect long dry spells like this from time to time since I'm playing in mostly large MTTs with 1,000 or more entrants where only 8% - 15% of the people make the money and much fewer make a significant cash. My overall stats are still good since I had a couple significant cashes before this streak, so normally I would trust my stats and trust my estimates, and just keep plugging along without asking any questions...

...however, I now happen to wander upon the 2+2 MTT FAQ, they speak of 50 to 100 buy-ins as being a large enough bankroll. As a player who plays in these MTTs with large fields, 50 buy-ins seems amazingly small to me, and even 100 buy-ins seems a bit on the small side. Perhaps this is because I'm talking about large MTTs online, where the 2+2 FAQ is just speaking "in general" about your average sized MTT?

I haven't lost 47 buy-ins over this down period (only about 29 or 30), but with each new MTT, I seem to creep closer to that 50 buy-in number that was quoted, yet I don't feel like I'm playing poorly the vast majority of the time, and feel like I'm playing pretty well most of the time. Is this possible? Any thoughts?

[AFennewald]

I would think you need more than 100 for large feild mtt. I would suggest mixing some small mtts and cash games or stts in there to avoid running out of money.

[Holdemphile]

I agree 100 buy ins is definitely not large enough to ensure that an "above average" player won't go broke if he's only playing tourneys with 1500+ players in them like alot of the low buy ins on Stars. It's enough for some really talented players, but I think it's a little too risky for most, especially if you aren't yet at the point where you are sure you really are above average.

Now, if you can find some sites with smaller fields, the analysis would be very different. You can find fields of 250-500 out there.

Holdemphile

[MrTimCaum]

I am also in the midst of an extreme drought, and once again I have to consider what kind of bankroll is really needed to be safe in the loooooooooong term when playing MTTs. I haven't added the ones I've played this week to get some official numbers, but over my last 240 or so MTTs since April 1st, I'm running at about a 5% ROI while seemingly making all the right plays.

It is monumentally frustrating, but I know I am a winning player and I'll eventually get out of this rut. The reason the good days/weeks/months feel so great is because we do hit these rough patches that can be emotionally crushing.

This is now the 4th time in my "poker career" that I've gone through what seems like "the biggest downswing EVER" and each time, I've known two things:

1) things will eventually improve

and

2) I'll need a bigger bankroll when I step back up in limits

[Double Straddle]

In a 200 person mtt where the top 10% get paid, you will make a significant cash about 2-5% of the time, depending on how you view significant. In a 2000 person mtt, you will make a significant cash 0.5-1.5% of the time for a 10% payout structure, so yes, variance will be much higher for larger fields, and your bankroll must be ready for these swings. The best thing to do is probably supplement your larger field MTTs with smaller field ones, or even cash games or sngs.

[La Brujita]

the only thing i have to add is in cash games when i run bad i drop down in stakes and play weaker competition.

people for whatever reason rarely seem to do that in multis.

the other thing to consider, and this isn't speaking to you but to the issue in general,

is that a couple of good cashes might have been the outliers and not the expected, in other words a player with a couple good cashes might have just gotten very lucky and not be likely to do so again. again, not speaking about you specifically.

[PiedPiper]

[ QUOTE ]
In a 2000 person mtt, you will make a significant cash 0.5-1.5% of the time for a 10% payout structure, so yes, variance will be much higher for larger fields, and your bankroll must be ready for these swings.

[/ QUOTE ]
I like the numbers you cited, but may I ask how you got to them? Is this just empirical evidence, or a good guess/estimate on your part? BTW, I'm not skeptical or disagreeing with the numbers you quote there--I actually agree with them, but am just curious how you arrived at them.

Earlier this week I estimated that for a low buy-in MTT like the $40k Guaranteed on PP that often has about 2,400 entrants in it, that a very good player would make a significant cash about 0.9% of the time (significant being defined as top 5 here). This was based on me estimaing the typical level of competition in this tournament, and then using an estimate based on conditional probability where I would estimate how often a very good player would make the money (top 220 out of 2,400), then treat the next part of the MTT as a new 220 person tournament and estimate how often a very good player would make "the money" in a 220 person MTT, and so on down the line until I got to 5 people and then multiplied the probabilities together to get a number around 0.9%.

In any case, it's interesting to see that the inexact and very rough estimate I made independent of your post fits withint the range you cited.

[mbishop]

the only thing i have to add is in cash games when i run bad i drop down in stakes and play weaker competition.

people for whatever reason rarely seem to do that in multis.

One difficulty with this is that lower buyin tournaments tend to have the most players. So you can drop down to softer competition, but in doing so you've only increased the problems caused by a large field. Of course this is only a generalization.

[poopstar212]

yeah i'd really like answer to this as well since im startng to think i must've been hitler in a former life to accrue this much bad luck.

i dont have an exact number but i would guess im down a bunch somewhere between 10-20k over my last about 1000 tourneys. i dont have my stats since i didnt keep them in the beginning for the first few hundred that i was playing at higher limits and then my computer crased with stats from around 500 tourneys at $10-30 buyins and then since that crash ive probably played another couple hundred with the same dissapointing results.

i dont even know what make of this. and i was hoping someone here might be able to help me get this turned around. that tournament reporter site is a joke i think since it has my girlfriend as an ace and im a duece and this is clearly not right, not a knock against her just that site cant even keep track of tourney results where a deal is made it seems.

at one point when i was keeping track i had dropped 115 buyins over about 150 tounreys at the low limits and i made a post about it. and then a made a pretty decent score around tourney # 315 that put me into the black barely for the low limits like 10% ROI or something. this was just for the low limits as i was still overall in the red from the few hundred at higher limits.

so i dunno how to even evaluate this. since in my mind some reason i think ok, i play about 10 tourneys a day, about 1000 hands a day, x 3 months or 100 days, this = 100,000 hands right? thats a really long time to run bad no? ive heard people say you really need 1000 tourneys to see where you stand. well im there and its not looking pretty. now flame all u want but theres no way i refuse to believe im this big of a loser. i see the jokers im playing against and theres no way i cant at least beat a few of them occasionally to at least breakeven or something.

i mean i was wondering if someone might be able to look at my partydb stats and be able to tell something from those? my screename is unclelouie17 on party. i changed my name a few months back after i dropped those 115 buyins for a change of luck but obv this didnt work. i would probably guees that theres at least several hundred tourneys on there now will someone please help me cuz losing is getting really, really, old?

[poopstar212]

man im surprised theres no interest in this since i basically did what the op did going by the faq of 50-100 buyins and it pretty much ruined my life. and im pretty sure im not that bad of a player since i basically sit at the tables all day and hardly ever run across any super advanced ninja fu techniques ive never seen before.