The long run, my biggest leak

[kagame]

So I dont post much anymore.

I know that I am a winning player, and my results seem to continue to speak for themselves. I dont really want my opponents to get any better vs me reading my posts, and I dont want to start "overthinking" the game till I move up from 5/10.

Problem is, sometimes I seriously question the skill element to poker. That is to say, how long is the long run, really? I know I see some people who never seem to lose a pot.

I have a friend who says "matchups" are all there really is to poker once youre competent. + EV spots and - EV spots. I mean hand reading is great and all but I'd much rather go set over set once a day and not have to bother making sick river calls with second pair for my stack. I'd also like to not lose 5+ buyins with sets alone in a session.

So here is what I would like responses to (if the community would be so kind):

In a typical 1000 hand session/sample how often would you say you go 1) set/boat under set/boat 2) runner-runner flush under flush 3) flopped flush under flush 4) misc big hand under big hand - like top 2 under a set on the flop 5) lose with a set to runner runner

Or if you prefer, how often is it that you lose 4 or more coinflips in a row OR get 1-3 outed for a full buyin after being all in?
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Disclaimer: I know noone wants to hear bad beat stories, and thats not what this is about. I think I have a bad tendency to play longer and try harder when Im running like turd. I want to know when I will hit the "long run" and luck will even out, or if I will always feel like I'm on the jerk end of more "matchups" then the players I view around me.

I dont let myself experience the long run. I make losing last longer and winning huge a brisk encounter.

[Misanthrope]

[ QUOTE ]
or if I will always feel like I'm on the jerk end of more "matchups" then the players I view around me

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably. Confirmation bias. Brain wiring sucks.

[yvesaint]

the long run = 1mil hands +

[TreyOfLight]

You are rationalizing your weakness. Repent or lose.

[creedofhubris]

You can limit some of those beats though tighter play preflop.

The more small suited connectors you throw away, the fewer flush over flushes you will lose. The more small pairs you throw away, the fewer set over sets you will lose.

[Kirkrrr]

[ QUOTE ]
the long run = 1mil hands +

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you being serious?

Here's the thing I don't like about "I have 10,000,000 hands of stats" posts - it really doesn't do much justice to live games, and different player tendencies will scew results to certain degrees. So screw how many tens of thousands of hands you've tracked. If you've been playing high-stakes (by which I mean the basic 5/10nl+) and/or full-time (40 hours/week or more) for 6 months or more, results should speak for themselves. Who cares how many times you've gone boat-over-boat?? How is that a leak?? Have you been making enough money (and probably way more than enough) to make a living over the last 6+ months?

Okay, "drunk" post, and it ends here. I hope you get my point.

Kirk

[El Diablo]

kagame,

Play less when you're losing and more when you're winning. Everything will take care of itself then.

[Apathy]

You are likely focusing on the wrong aspect of your poker game by worrying about when your luck will turn around.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
kagame,

Play less when you're losing and more when you're winning. Everything will take care of itself then.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you filling in for ray this week?

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]
kagame,

Play less when you're losing and more when you're winning. Everything will take care of itself then.

[/ QUOTE ]

We call it the "elagnitram" system.