$3R Gutshot Hand

[NoahSD]

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t400 with t25 antes (9 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t7340)
UTG+1 (t21455)
MP1 (t19965)
MP2 (t16425)
MP3 (t11472)
CO (t41758)
Button (t17194)
Hero (t39165)
BB (t14025)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, UTG+1 calls t400, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP2 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP3 folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, Hero calls t200, BB checks

Flop: (t1425) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="red">UTG+1 bets t400</font>, Hero calls t400, <font color="gray">BB folds</font>

Turn: (t2225) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
<font color="red">Hero bets t1200</font>

[NHFunkii]

I don't really like it. his stack is huge relative to the bet and it's only half-pot anyway, I think he's calling with any pair here which is a lot of his range. I would just checkfold (unless he gives me odds to call)

oh and fold the flop =/

[0evg0]

I C/R flop, lead Turn here.

[flyingmoose]

[ QUOTE ]
I C/R flop, lead Turn here.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does he call a big check/raise with that he folds to a turn bet? Or are you talking about making a small check/raise just to take the lead and set up the turn play?

[0evg0]

The second one.

Something like raise 400 to 1200, lead turn for 2800.

Though in this case I might give up with the 2 pairing as most 5s are still going to call the turn now.

[DiamondAce]

Your odds of hitting the the gutshot are 1:10.5, which means you should expect to win 4200 when calling 400. You're only going to get this if the button has a real hand. You also have to factor in the times when you hit the straight, but he gets his flush.

[Exitonly]

well, you also win when he folds

[0evg0]

[ QUOTE ]
Your odds of hitting the the gutshot are 1:10.5, which means you should expect to win 4200 when calling 400. You're only going to get this if the button has a real hand. You also have to factor in the times when you hit the straight, but he gets his flush.

[/ QUOTE ]
Okay Mr. Calculator, now factor in the times he hits a 9, and determine the frequency that Villain has X[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and also consider the percentage of times Villain folds.

Math is an integral part of poker, but machine-like analysis is not often that valuable in deep-stack flop decisions.

[DiamondAce]

I ignored the turn bet. Calling an -EV situation with the intention of betting could make this a +EV situation.

-Mr. Calculator

[0evg0]

[ QUOTE ]
I ignored the turn bet. Calling an -EV situation with the intention of betting could make this a +EV situation.

-Mr. Calculator

[/ QUOTE ]

Well then... duh. If anyone thinks calling bets to hit a gutshot are +EV, then I'd be curious to find out how they know what EV is but don't know not to chase 4 outers.

Good that someone here can take a joke though.