Another late tourney question

[sapsuckah]

I saw another newbie poster here tonight who posted a late tournament push question, and it was very reminiscent of a situation I had recently. While I agreed that the other poster's was a pretty easy push, I'm not so sure about mine.

BTW, thanks in advance for everyone's input... this forum is an incredible resource for new (and, unfortunately, low buy-in) students of the game like myself. I hope someday to be in a position to return the favor. (And I will!)

OK... I'm in 6th position out of 14 remaining (1,700 or so started). $2 buy-in, so lots of minefield dodging early. Money starts getting decent (for me) at 4th or so. Villain is chip leader and has been fairly aggressive but not absurdly so.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t12000 (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP1 (t129374)
MP2 (t302277)
CO (t99468)
Button (t96668)
SB (t35506)
Hero (t150099)
UTG (t642342)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t48000</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t149499</font>

Reasonable push?

Looks like the PERFECT time for a stop-n-go to me.

[0evg0]

Yes, definitely stop &amp; go here.

Adanthar said it best: 4xBB raises are the ultimate tell - they will not fold to a reraise.

Villain is getting very sexy odds to call here anyway, so this push is only reasonable if you think you are at least 50/50 againt his range, and you're not.

[DiamondAce]

[ QUOTE ]


Villain is getting very sexy odds to call here anyway, so this push is only reasonable if you think you are at least 50/50 againt his range, and you're not.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's getting pot odds of 1:2. He's going to call, and it's unlikely that you're the favorite.

[sapsuckah]

Thanks for the replies folks.

I need to learn more about the stop-and-go... I see it bandied around a lot on these forums and I haven't seen a lot of consistency about when it's better to use that that flat pushing. Is there a link someone can send me to a good discussion of that?

As for the resoultion of the hand... I lost it (of course, which always seems to be driving motivator behind posts like this), but not how'd you think. Villain also had KQs (clubs) and caught the flush.

MP1 (t129374)
MP2 (t302277)
CO (t99468)
Button (t96668)
SB (t35506)
Hero (t150099)
UTG (t642342)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t48000</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t149499</font>, UTG calls t101499.

Flop: (t301998) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Turn: (t301998) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: (t301998) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: t301998

[registrar]

Check the FAQ for Fossilman's post.

FWIW, I can fold here. I don't think that villain's folding to your push here (great prediction as he didn't!), or to you pushing on the flop so I don't really like the stopngo. The main idea of the stopngo is that you have more fold equity after the flop and you're only letting the villain see three cards.

In this situation, assuming that he didn't have the flush draw, he's getting 2:1 to call, and potentially bust you, when you're representing an ace by pushing all in on the ace high flop. He might fold, he might not. I'm not saying it's a bad play here but it's marginal, IMHO because your stack is not really large enough to generate much fold equity by pushing in on this flop.

For me, there are two points here. Firstly, you can't call off one third of your stack with KQs. So, unless you fold or play the stopngo, you have to push. But your stack is never going to push him off this hand. So the question is, what hands are you ahead of and the answer is very few, if any. KQs is about the bottom of his range, when all the chips are in pre-flop.

For me, this is a fold. If he had made a 3x bet, then I think the stopngo works better because he's going to find it very hard to call a push on a flop that misses him.

Maths isn't my strong point but just to illustrate my point regarding the stopngo here:

Villain raises to ~50k. You call. Pot is 100k. You have 100k behind and push. Villain is getting 2:1 and is left with 500k if you have indeed got the ace you're repping. He's still table chip leader. He send out a message that he's willing to send you to the green when he raises. Let's assume also that he is aware of the stopngo and figures there's a reasonable chance that a BB calling pf and insta-pushing on the flop might be making this move. In this case, IMO, villain has to NOT have a pocket pair and to have completely missed the flop for this play to work, with these stack sizes.

Now assume he bets 3x to 36k, you call and then push for 120k. IMO, he's only calling there if he connects pretty well.

Just my thoughts. I'm generally pretty quick to throw KQ away to a raise when I'm making a decision for my whole stack.

[PokerLearner]

I would just like to note that sometimes in these small buy-ins, people raise more with small pairs because they don't want to see a flop. If that's the case with the villain, stop n' go is quite effective, in my experience. However, if he is only raising 4x BB with real hands, and seems like a real player, I think folding is best.

[AceLuby]

The thing with this hand is that I think you're going to the felt w/ it and got a bad flop. I probably would've pushed preflop as well, hoping to double up and be a real force. If your goal is 4th I think the move is standard. The CL raised, even the stop n go wouldn't have worked as he flopped the nut flush draw. Unless you really think you're dominated (which you weren't, you just got pretty unlucky) I would push PF as well.

[betgo]

Villain raised 4xBB UTG. Does anyone like a fold? I prefer it to a stop and go.

[AceLuby]

You're just going to give up your blinds w/ KQs? I think that is the worst suggestion. You're asking to be blinded out.