TT, I know what to do but...

Solid_p · #1 01-14-2006, 09:05 AM

I don't like my turn and river play here. I think I know what to do, just want to see if you agree. Villain has taggish stats.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $5.
2 folds, MP2 raises, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, MP2 calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP2 raises, Hero 3-bets, MP2 calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls.

River: (8.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.50 BB

Nick Royale · #2 01-14-2006, 09:35 AM

If you bet the turn and villain raises you'll always have at least 4 outs unless he's on a very weird/unlikely hand like quads of straight flush. So if you bet you'll have to call a raise. If he's not very bluffy I think betting the turn, calling a raise and check/folding the river will be fine. That way you're not risking giving a freecard to someting like AK with a fd.

Solid_p · #3 01-14-2006, 09:48 AM

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If you bet the turn and villain raises you'll always have at least 4 outs unless he's on a very weird/unlikely hand like quads of straight flush. So if you bet you'll have to call a raise. If he's not very bluffy I think betting the turn, calling a raise and check/folding the river will be fine. That way you're not risking giving a freecard to someting like AK with a fd.

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My suggestion would be to bet/fold this turn, since his flop raise very well could be a flush draw that now hit. I don't think we will see a bluff/semi-bluff raise on this turn from a TAG enough for us to call down a raise, when I have shown so much strength. Weak?

Nick Royale · #4 01-14-2006, 09:59 AM

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If you bet the turn and villain raises you'll always have at least 4 outs unless he's on a very weird/unlikely hand like quads of straight flush. So if you bet you'll have to call a raise. If he's not very bluffy I think betting the turn, calling a raise and check/folding the river will be fine. That way you're not risking giving a freecard to someting like AK with a fd.

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My suggestion would be to bet/fold this turn, since his flop raise very well could be a flush draw that now hit. I don't think we will see a bluff/semi-bluff raise on this turn from a TAG enough for us to call down a raise, when I have shown so much strength. Weak?

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If he could be raising AA/KK you have 6 outs. If he's raising 99 you also have 6 outs. Getting 9.5:1 from the pot needing only 6.7:1. If you know he has a flush you have the odds to call, check/raise a T bet and check/call a 6. If the T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] falls on the river you're likely to extract 3BB from a flush. This line will also work against AA/KK with a flushdraw.

That being said, folding to the turn raise is still close, but calling is slightly more +EV imo.

Solid_p · #5 01-14-2006, 10:08 AM

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If you bet the turn and villain raises you'll always have at least 4 outs unless he's on a very weird/unlikely hand like quads of straight flush. So if you bet you'll have to call a raise. If he's not very bluffy I think betting the turn, calling a raise and check/folding the river will be fine. That way you're not risking giving a freecard to someting like AK with a fd.

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My suggestion would be to bet/fold this turn, since his flop raise very well could be a flush draw that now hit. I don't think we will see a bluff/semi-bluff raise on this turn from a TAG enough for us to call down a raise, when I have shown so much strength. Weak?

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If he could be raising AA/KK you have 6 outs. If he's raising 99 you also have 6 outs. Getting 9.5:1 from the pot needing only 6.7:1. If you know he has a flush you have the odds to call, check/raise a T bet and check/call a 6. If the T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] falls on the river you're likely to extract 3BB from a flush. This line will also work against AA/KK with a flushdraw.

That being said, folding to the turn raise is still close, but calling is slightly more +EV imo.

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AA/KK is very unlikely, given the action so far. If he's raising with 99, I've got 2 outs, not 6.

Nick Royale · #6 01-14-2006, 10:22 AM

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If you bet the turn and villain raises you'll always have at least 4 outs unless he's on a very weird/unlikely hand like quads of straight flush. So if you bet you'll have to call a raise. If he's not very bluffy I think betting the turn, calling a raise and check/folding the river will be fine. That way you're not risking giving a freecard to someting like AK with a fd.

[/ QUOTE ]

My suggestion would be to bet/fold this turn, since his flop raise very well could be a flush draw that now hit. I don't think we will see a bluff/semi-bluff raise on this turn from a TAG enough for us to call down a raise, when I have shown so much strength. Weak?

[/ QUOTE ]
If he could be raising AA/KK you have 6 outs. If he's raising 99 you also have 6 outs. Getting 9.5:1 from the pot needing only 6.7:1. If you know he has a flush you have the odds to call, check/raise a T bet and check/call a 6. If the T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] falls on the river you're likely to extract 3BB from a flush. This line will also work against AA/KK with a flushdraw.

That being said, folding to the turn raise is still close, but calling is slightly more +EV imo.

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AA/KK is very unlikely, given the action so far. If he's raising with 99, I've got 2 outs, not 6.

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I smooth call preflop hu with AA/KK pretty often, espacially in position. But my bad, obviously a straight won't help us much here.

Still, you can call profitable against a flush, but 99 is a pretty likely hand so a call probably is slightly -EV.