25/50:small overpair

aba20 · #1 05-20-2006, 06:55 PM

This happened about a week ago and I was unsure if I should post it. I thought about it deceided I had a good answer to the question, but after mulling to over I don't know if I like what I came up with. Anyways...

Villian is green plastic. He knows who I am, knows that I am a regular, but I am unsure how he views me. In this session I had not been playing overly agro, which I am sure he had noticed. Before he pushed the flop he thought for about 10-15 seconds.

Ultimate Bet
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $25./$50.
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $5079.50
CO: $1474.50
Button: $7793
Hero: $5000
BB: $1000

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG, folds, CO (poster) checks, Button raises to $250, Hero raises to $875, 2 folds, Button calls.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($1850, 2 players)
Hero bets $1200, Button raises all-in $6918,

Hero ???. (Note it is 3K to hero)

Morphling29 · #2 05-20-2006, 06:58 PM

turbo muck

luckychewy · #3 05-20-2006, 07:03 PM

I doubt he'd do this with AK, or any other overcards for that matter. For the rare times he has 55/77 it isn't worth it for the majority of the time he has a set or smooth called with TT-AA looking for a safe flop.

Lucky · #4 05-20-2006, 07:09 PM

Fold this quick.

If you had bigger pair, the decision would maybe be a bit closer, but still folding mostly. With GP, while he may run about 33/22 or whatever, i think is much tighter when the chips go in. In his videos, hes constantly talking about how low his variance is compared to others and compared to what people think. I think this is why hes usually way ahead here.

toybux · #5 05-20-2006, 07:57 PM

I'm curious, at what point do you start to call this? TT? JJ? QQ?

durrrr · #6 05-20-2006, 09:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
turbo muck

[/ QUOTE ]

this is definitely very close imo. I dont turbo-anything here.

flawless_victory · #7 05-20-2006, 09:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
turbo muck

[/ QUOTE ]

this is definitely very close imo. I dont turbo-anything here.

[/ QUOTE ]agreed. v tough spot here, i probably call, but that is w/ image, w/ a more solid image i think u can lay it down.

creedofhubris · #8 05-20-2006, 10:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm curious, at what point do you start to call this? TT? JJ? QQ?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you can let go of QQ here.

samoleus · #9 05-21-2006, 12:27 AM

agree with durr - much much closer decision than the other posters seem to think ...

Jamougha · #10 05-21-2006, 04:13 AM

[Disclaimer, I'm clueless!]

I don't think he's calling you light pf with these stacks and I doubt he would push AK too often here based on his videos. If his range is 44+ then you have about 27% pot equity. You have to put in 29% of the final pot. Yah, close.