Getting Outplayed

[bruce]

5/10 PLO on Party. This is my second hand of the evening. I don't have any good reads. When I first sit down, I tend
to play passively until I get a better feel for the game.

I pick up in the small blind Ac Kh 9s Td. There are two limpers and I call for $5. Big blind checks and we see the flop.

Flop 6c 7h 8d

I'm first to act and I bet $40. Cutoff is the only caller. I have around 1200 and he has me covered.

Turn 5c 6c 7h 8d

I bet the pot, roughly $120, and the cutoff raises to $360.
I call. I assume we each have a straight and perhaps he has
a redraw also.

River 5c 6c 7h 8d 8s

I'm first to act. What's my best play? I'm not pleased with my river play. Perhaps I'm overly harsh on myself. Comments appreciated and results to follow.

Bruce

[Chimichonga]

Umm, this seems like an obvious check/call or check/fold depending upon your read of the villian.

Oh, and fold pre-flop.

[RoundTower]

I hate this situation. With no reads I would check and fold to a big bet. If you call you are probably putting in 1/3 of the pot to win 1/2 of it.

With a different read I might call the bet, or lead the river myself for 500 or so to try and fold out a split.

[joewatch]

I don't agree with fold this hand preflop. In fact, given only 2 limpers, I would strongly consider raising with this hand as it has good high-card strength and nobody has given any indication that they have a big pair.

I always feel that the nut str8 is a hand that should be played flexibly. On the flop, I like check-call, leading, and check-raising. The turn gives you the same options.

On the river, I think check-call and leading with a 1/2 pot bet are both reasonable plays.

[bruce]

Perhaps this is a leak of mine, but there isn't a hand in the world that I'll fold for another $5 when I'm getting 7 to 1 BTF in pot limit or no limit from the small blind. If I'm playing limit than I'll fold trash from the small blind, but my implied odds are huge in this setting. I'll also make the assumption, hold the laughter, that I play half decently OOP.

Bruce

[bruce]

You hit the nail on the head with your post. I was very disappointed that I checked the river. I was pretty sure we had the same hand on the turn and leading the river with a big bet perhaps might have stolen the pot for me. As it turns out I checked and he bet $600. What's my play now? Notice how villian also did not bet the whole pot. I'm not sure what that means if anything. Is he trying to price me in or is this a cheaper way for him to steal the pot from me?

Bruce

[Chimichonga]

It has little to do with your skills, just with the fact that this hand plays poorly from up front as it is basically only ever going to give you the naked nuts.

I might play this hand against passive, predictable players. The inherent issues with playing this hand from up front are nicely illustrated in your post. You flop the nuts, but get put in a tough spot on the river with no read.

Your opponent effectively knows everything about your hand. You have a 9-T with no redraw/freeroll. If you did, you likely would have taken the opportunity to get it all-in on the turn.

I guess there is some possibility that you would have played a set like this, but given the action that looks like a small probability to your opponent.

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
but my implied odds are huge in this setting.



[/ QUOTE ]

Personally, I think the odds are greatest that you'll (1) throw away 1/2 bb for nothing (2) flop a hand with mediocre potential and now have to play it out of position (I don't care what anyone says about their abilities... position is valuable) (3) end up in the position you were in; that is, you flopped the nuts and now have no redraws because the rest of your hand isn't coordinated.

Finally- in one of your posts in this thread, you said you were certain you had the same hand. Yet, its quite easy to imagine that on the turn he picked up a higher straight. Or that he picked up redraws... like, he went from a straight to a straight with boat redraws.

[bruce]

Good post with good points.

This was only my second hand so I was not familiar with the opponents play. It sure is tough for me if not outright impossible for me to ditch a hand like this BTF getting such a good price. The hand does suck but my implied odds are huge.

For whatever it's worth I'd play the same way in HE. I'll almost call with anything from the big blind if opener comes in for a 2X raise if he has chips in HE or Omaha. Implied odds dictate my play in these spots.

Bruce

[RoundTower]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh, and fold pre-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
I thought this was a joke, I would never fold this either.

On the turn you can figure your opponent most likely has the same straight with a redraw, although it is possible he has something else. He is more likely to have clubs than a set/two pair, but you must invest $600 to win $420 if you are only splitting the pot, so you have to be good for half the pot 2/3 of the time to call here. I don't think his <pot bet means much, he raised less than the pot on fourth street as well.

It's close but I think it's a fold against an unknown. The more I think about it though, the more I think leading the river is the better play. Because checking puts you in such a bad position against an aggressive player, your bluff has to be successful a correspondingly less % of the time to be the better play. Normally I don't like this idea of making what many people would see as a "blocking bet", because inducing a bluff is often more profitable. But here you definitely do not want to induce a bluff.