#1
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Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds
10/20NL, full ring. Villain is relatively tight (19/5/2), used to be pretty weak/tight (15/3/2), but he opened up his game a lil in the last month or so , but I still regard him as tight. He has $2065 and I have him covered.
Villain limps UTG, MP (TAG) raises to $80, LP calls, and I call 66 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the BB and Villain calls as well. Flop ($330): 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] I will usually lead here, but decide to check, Villain checks, and MP bets $300, LP folds, I call (? I raise this usually but I want to see what Villain does), and Villain makes it $900, MP folds, and I... |
#2
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Re: Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds
fold.
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#3
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Re: Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds
Your hand is garbage here. Easy fold. Wouldnt have called a bet in the first place.
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#4
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Re: Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds
i would have check folded the flop.
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#5
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Re: Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds
[ QUOTE ]
i would have check folded the flop. [/ QUOTE ] |
#6
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Re: Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds
Villain screen name?
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#7
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Re: Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds
Look at it from villain's POV: a TAG raises preflop (from MP, not from a steal position) and leads for the pot. A strong player cold-calls the flop bet. Two players have shown a lot of interest in this pot. And STILL he throws out a raise. This is representing a great deal of strength from a tight villain (alb? stackinoff?).
Stacks are shallow compared to the size of his bet, your outs are obvious. There's really no point in continuing. I think your initial flop call was dubious as well. |
#8
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Re: Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds
i dont like your play on this hand. Your sixes arent nearly as good a hand as you seem to think.
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#9
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Re: Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds
[ QUOTE ]
Look at it from villain's POV: a TAG raises preflop (from MP, not from a steal position) and leads for the pot. A strong player cold-calls the flop bet. Two players have shown a lot of interest in this pot. And STILL he throws out a raise. This is representing a great deal of strength from a tight villain (alb? stackinoff?). Stacks are shallow compared to the size of his bet, your outs are obvious. There's really no point in continuing. I think your initial flop call was dubious as well. [/ QUOTE ] Haha, good guess, it was Stackinoff. I am kinda surprised so many people would check/fold the flop. I am 50/50 vs TT+/AK, and by calling I get to see what the other player does without necessarily committing myself (which I hadn't made a decision to do yet). Once he raised, and the raiser folded, I had a decision to make... I figured if he had a set (which I likely thought he had), then a push would be slightly +EV, but if he had a flush already (like AK/AQ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], which he could certainly limp in EP) I am toast and drawing to a 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or runner runner FH. So I opted to fold. But after I ran the numbers, I think this is much closer than everyone is saying. I am ~41% vs a set (which I think is most likely), and if I include AK [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], then I am ~37.8%, and only when I include AQ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], do I get ~35%, where it is -EV. And this is with even weighting, I would say a set is most likely followed by AK/AQ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] . Of course, he could have another flush combo, but I find it rather unlikely that he limp calls with any of those hands in EP, but I guess it is possible since he had opened his game up a little. Meh. |
#10
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Re: Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds
OK, how about this:
there is no chance that villain is folding to a push, having put in half his stack. Your only play here is a push. If you push, in the best case you are slightly +EV, and in the worst case you are hugely -EV. PS I think villain's range is wider than you suggest here, although if you have stats that say otherwise I'd believe you; he's calling that PF raise closing the action 4-way, and he limps a lot with suited connectors. |
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