2/4 - Good induced bluff, or costly free card?

[knicknut]

Over 200 hands villian is 30/8/1.2

Hero has K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in MP2

Folded to Hero, hero raises. SB calls, BB calls.
----- FLOP ----- [2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]
SB checks, BB checks
Hero bets, SB calls, BB folds
----- TURN ----- [8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]
SB checks, Hero checks
----- RIVER ----- [5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
SB bets, Hero calls

I figured 50/50 he has second pair or Ax, with small chance of set or something big. This way I made an extra if he had middle pair or nothing and would have folded a turn bet, and save one for the times he's calling down with an A, as well as prevent being popped on the turn by a slowplayed high ace, two pair, or set.

Thoughts?

[Hielko]

I think it could be ok if the villain would be more aggressive.

You don't have to worry about a free card, since there is no scary overcard possible (an A-would actually be good). I'm more worried about losing value. There are a lot more middle pairs then A's, i think.

[elindauer]

If you are going to give a free card, give it on the flop. Betting only makes sense if you expect to be called down by lots of weaker hands, but if that is the case, then your turn check is inconsistent.

good luck.
Eric

[Percussion]

I bet flop, and bet turn and check river U/I unless there is some read I have on villian
I think that betting the turn gives you a free showdown most of the time.

[W. Deranged]

E,

Would you really ever check the flop here? Seems like that's a very easy way to pay 2 bb like every time against an A, rather than 1.5, with no gaurentee of making any more against inferior hands.

[W. Deranged]

This decision is so read dependent. If you look at it, both betting the turn/checking the river and checking the turn/inducing a bluff are going to have exactly the same outcome in many situations.

Let's consider when they are not the same outcome:

1. Villain is capable of going WA/WB with an A and donking the river for value. As you probably shouldn't be folding this river a lot without a strong read with KK, you lose a BB by betting here.

ADVANTAGE: Check the turn.

2. Your opponent has a hand he would fold to the turn for a single bet AND he won't bluff the river when he misses AND won't pay off a river value bet. Clearly, in this situation, you should want to bet. In this case, you give your opponent exactly his equity in the pot for free, because he'll only ever pay off when he hits a card to beat you.

ADVANTAGE: Bet the turn.

2a. Your opponent has a hand he'd fold on the turn for one bet, but would always bluff the river. Here, the cost of letting your opponent see a free card is more than outweighed by the fact that he will usually be putting in a turn bet incorrectly.

ADVANTAGE: Check the turn.

3. Your opponent would pay on the turn to see a river card, but will never pay off the river without hitting and won't bluff the river.

ADVANTAGE: Bet the turn.



So, it basically comes down to this: Betting tends to be better if your opponent is passive, a chaser, and not tricky. Checking is better as a defensive move against opponents capable of taking tricky lines like WA/WB or who have a penchant for bluffing too much. The decision comes almost ENTIRELY down to this sort of read, because in so many situations it just doesn't matter at all.

Here, a 30/8/1.2 seems more on the "passive/chaser/untricky" side. So my inclination is to BET.

[knicknut]

Nice response, Deranged, thanks. What's WA/WB mean (sorry, can't find that acronym anywhere, thought I knew them all).

I see what you mean, and in the end it boils down to the more simple concept of "if you think they're drawing, charge them, if you think they've got value, the free card isn't as dangerous."

Looking at his stats I now see he's 31/9/1.7. Might checking have more worth now?

[W. Deranged]

Knick,

WA/WB means "Way Ahead/Way Behind." It is a standard move that an opponent might take with a weak A here, whereby the check-call the flop and turn and value-bet the river. The idea behind the play is that it maximizes value against hands like KK (it doesn't give an easy opportunity to fold) while only loses the minimum against a bigger hand.

In this situation, if your opponents are skilled they might use that line against you. If they are, checking the turn is better as betting is exactly what your opponent wants you to do.


As for the opponent in question, based on numbers he is excruciatingly borderline. Do you have any experiential reads? Against this guy, I imagine both lines are going to be very, very close. I'd tend to bet still, but I can't imagine checking is that bad at all.

[knicknut]

Thanks. Familiar with the concept, not the abbreviation. Thanks for expanding on it.

c/c, c/c, b/f is something I've put into my repertoire a bit more lately, so I have to be on the lookout for it as well. I was playing too many tables at the time to have a good read but don't consider the villian to be too skilled with those stats. You're right, the two lines seem EV similar. I guess I was just influenced by just rereading the chapter about inducing bluffs in HEFAP.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
E,

Would you really ever check the flop here? Seems like that's a very easy way to pay 2 bb like every time against an A, rather than 1.5, with no gaurentee of making any more against inferior hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I always check the flop in this situation.

Good luck.
Eric