Party $20: AK in EP facing min raise, how should I play this?

[bambam16]

I tend to have trouble with these kinds of hands. We are about 10 min from the next blind increase to 200/400. About 175 players left, 50 make the money.

I've been at the table with the two opponents for a while. MP3 has been the chip leader, then took a few beats, but has been stealing and bullying his way back to the top. Plays a LOT of hands, and will limp with almost any 2 suited in EP, and calls pretty raises liberally as well, hoping to get lucky and bust the raiser. CO has been tighter, hasn't shown down a hand to the best of my knowledge, but hasn't been splashing around nearly as much as MP3. Average stack is about 7k to 7.5k.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB (t13741)
UTG (t4276)
UTG+1 (t2272)
Hero (t4900)
MP1 (t8824)
MP2 (t7750)
MP3 (t21522)
CO (t9732)
Button (t6840)
SB (t3740)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t900</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls t900, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t1500</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero ???

I'm not really concerned about the MP3 caller as he has a pretty wide range I'm ahead of. The min raise is screaming big hand, but my question here is should I:

a. call and see a flop, leaving me with 3400 and really no other move than a stop &amp; go.
b. push and hope for the best (I know I have no FE against the min raiser, but can usually get MP3 out of the way).
c. fold (ok not really an option but I needed a c. ;p)

I figure I can't fold the flop if it doesn't favor me, I would have 11 BBs left and be in bad shape compared to the rest of the table.

This isn't meant to be a bad beat post, but I just want to make sure I'm not missing anything when evaluating these situations. Any other factors I should be taking into consideration? Thanks in advance.

[bgoalie35]

If you can narrow CO's range to JJ+, AK, (which may be too tight, but you would know best) then you are only a 1.5:1 dog, and you will be getting 1.79:1 on your money if MP3 folds.

I push.

[jcm4ccc]

I'm folding this and thanking the CO for being so transparent. If I had any pair, I would call for set value. But even if the flop hits your AK, you might still be in big trouble.

EDIT: I'm stupid. You're getting about 2:1 on a push. Didn't think it through.

[n1232]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm folding this and thanking the CO for being so transparent. If I had any pair, I would call for set value. But even if the flop hits your AK, you might still be in big trouble.

[/ QUOTE ]

HUH?

You are not getting near the correct odds for set value only. With AK I push...with JJ+ I push, with 22+ I stop &amp; go

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm folding this and thanking the CO for being so transparent. If I had any pair, I would call for set value. But even if the flop hits your AK, you might still be in big trouble.

[/ QUOTE ]

HUH?

You are not getting near the correct odds for set value only. With AK I push...with JJ+ I push, with 22+ I stop &amp; go

[/ QUOTE ] Calling 600 to win 7750, by my calculations. Add another 600 when the guy behind you calls.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
If you can narrow CO's range to JJ+, AK, (which may be too tight, but you would know best) then you are only a 1.5:1 dog, and you will be getting 1.79:1 on your money if MP3 folds.

I push.

[/ QUOTE ] actually, it's closer to 2:1, I think. Pushing 4000 to win 7750. So a push is clearly correct.

[n1232]

Wow I have been up way to long...I read CO as only have 3700....which would make it a lot closer.

[bambam16]

Maybe it's just the luck I've been dealing with lately, but I had a bad feeling he had AA or KK with maybe QQ. I thought if he had JJ or AK he would come over the top as a squeeze play. To make a long story short, I pushed, MP3 folded as expected, and CO turned over KK.

I just Poker Stoved it and this is what I came up with:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 30.8581 % 30.48% 00.38% { AsKc }
Hand 2: 69.1419 % 68.77% 00.38% { QQ+ }

I thought I'd ask because I find myself in these situations more often than I'd like. If I dump it there my stack is a little more than half average. I can usually play the short stack well, but a lot of steals and raises were not being respected at the table, which made me think I'd pretty much have to hope for a good hand sometime soon. I thought I had to gamble to make a run, just tough luck in that spot. Looking at the stove results though, maybe I should have folded.